On Tuesday, .25” to .5” of precipitation fell throughout most of Marion County. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, most Marion County was most recently listed under extreme conditions, with areas north of Lake Red Rock in the severe category. The next report is due out tomorrow morning.
Additional rain is in the forecast this weekend, with the National Weather Service predicting showers and storms beginning late Friday evening and continuing though early Sunday morning. The latest forecast projections estimate between 1″ to 1.5″ possible through the end of the weekend.
The National Weather Service Palmer Drought Index indicates Marion County needs another 6-9” of rain over the next four weeks to alleviate drought in the region.

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KALAMAZOO, Mich. (WOOD) — A recent pattern of above-average temperatures with little to no rain has been a mixed bag for West Michigan farmers.
“I always think about water when it comes to plants as being the accelerator pedal for growth,” said Bruce MacKellar, a field crops educator with Michigan State University Extension.
But Mother Nature took her foot off the accelerator this season.
“We got into a situation after July 15 where the bottom dropped out of the rainfall, literally,” MacKellar said. “We just didn’t have any in a lot of areas.
MacKellar said crops like corn and soybeans are showing the effects of the abnormally hot, dry weather.
“The difference between the amount of water that was applied (using irrigation) is about five inches from what we received from natural rainfall,” he said.
“The amount of corn that we raise here, even though we had probably some of the most severe drought stress in the country, probably won’t impact prices very much,” MacKellar said.
He said this year’s weather was good for producing high-sugar content grapes.

BISMARCK — The federal government has denied North Dakota’s request for a disaster declaration for this year’s drought, Gov. Doug Burgum said Monday, Oct. 9.
Burgum said state officials knew their request was a “long shot,” given the history of similar requests and the demands placed on federal resources by recent hurricanes and wildfires.
“We appreciate FEMA’s consideration of our request,” Burgum said in a statement.
“There’s a number of people who have a great need for some help,” he said. “I was hoping it could happen.
During his visit to North Dakota last month, President Donald Trump nodded to what he called a “devastating drought” but didn’t mention the governor’s pending request.
“We are with you 100 percent,” Trump said during his speech at a Mandan refinery.

BISMARCK — The federal government has denied North Dakota’s request for a disaster declaration for this year’s drought, Gov. Doug Burgum said Monday, Oct. 9.
Burgum said state officials knew their request was a “long shot,” given the history of similar requests and the demands placed on federal resources by recent hurricanes and wildfires.
“We appreciate FEMA’s consideration of our request,” Burgum said in a statement.
“There’s a number of people who have a great need for some help,” he said. “I was hoping it could happen.
During his visit to North Dakota last month, President Donald Trump nodded to what he called a “devastating drought” but didn’t mention the governor’s pending request.
“We are with you 100 percent,” Trump said during his speech at a Mandan refinery.

Unusually dry, warm weather has caused some local trees to drop their leaves early, while others haven’t begun to change colors yet.
"You can walk through a lot of woodlands that have sugar maples, and you’ll find sugar maple leaves on the ground that the tree has lost because they’re cutting their water losses to conserve what they have," Morton Arboretum Manager Ed Hedborn said.
Visitors to the Arboretum have noticed the difference.
"This year it’s a little disappointing because a lot of the maples have already changed, and a lot of the species haven’t started," visitor Bob Roszyk said. "So we’ll probably have to come back later in the month."
"I got an email from an arborist saying that because of the drought, there wasn’t going to be as much fall color this year, in general," said visitor Deb Stein. "But we’re outside and it’s beautiful."

That’s the thinking of many scientists, including Marty Ralph, director of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography, and Scripps researcher Alexander “Sasha” Gershunov.
Specifically, how do you expect that our weather and climate will change, and over what period of time?
Overall, we expect more variability of annual precipitation from year-to-year, but not necessarily more precipitation on average for California.
Actually, we expect a little more in Northern California and less in Southern California.
Q: Would Southern California experience an increase in atmospheric rivers?
We expect Southern California to experience an increase in the intensity of atmospheric rivers — their moisture content and precipitation production — not necessarily in their frequency. At the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes we work with water managers in the state to be prepared for those fluctuations so they are able to capture precipitation when it occurs to offset periods of drought, or to better anticipate flood risk.
Would that make the region more susceptible to wildfires?
Q: If we experience a clear change in weather patterns, will you be able to quantify how much of it is due to natural variability and how much of it stems from the increased use of fossil fuels by humans?
In response to regional water management needs, the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes is leading the development of “Atmospheric River Outlooks" that extend two to three weeks into the future and strive to predict the odds of more and less than normal atmospheric river activity hitting the west coast during that period.

The southern half of Lower Michigan is very dry. Two storm systems should bring decent rain to southern Lower in the next week.
The storms should be able to bring widespread rain to the southern half of Lower Michigan. The second storm should spread rain across much of Michigan.
Rain could just be starting in far southwest and far southern Lower Michigan around 8 p.m. Tuesday.
Half inch rains or more are possible in the southern third of Lower Michigan.
The rain will continue to move into southeast Lower Michigan Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning.
It’s basically a solid rain for the southern half of Lower Michigan.
Here’s a forecast for Saturday night, October 14, 2017. The model I like the most, the European Model, has parts of southern Lower getting a total of three inches of rain in the next week.

"I seeded my lawn last week.
"I seeded my lawn last week and I am watering it every other day.
Be sure to continue watering the newly seeded lawn in the early morning. You can reduce that problem by watering in the morning and allowing the new grass blades to dry before nightfall.
If you have planted trees or shrubs this spring, summer, or recently this fall, be sure to water them thoroughly at least once or twice a week before the onset of cold weather.
If you have an established lawn, trees and shrubs that have been in your landscape for more than one year, I would also suggest you take the time to water thoroughly. Do this watering for a long enough period so that the soil gets wet at least 1 to 2 feet below the soil surface.
If you have recently planted new shrubs, trees, or lawn, be sure you have applied a high phosphorous fertilizer to the new plants. This will encourage good root development quickly and help the development of active roots that will absorb needed water during this dry spell.

Storms in early 2017 pushed rainfall totals above normal throughout Southern California.
Lake Casitas, which supplies water to the Ojai Valley and parts of Ventura, dropped to 38 percent full by last week.
“One moderately good year was not enough to get us out of the drought,” said Ron Merckling, conservation manager for the Casitas Municipal Water District, which manages the manmade reservoir.
But then the rain started.
Much of Ventura County had 120 to 150 percent of normal in the 2016-17 rain year, which ended Sept. 30.
Cooler waters at the equator could be pointing to La Niña, a pattern that typically means a dry winter and that Pazert calls "the diva of drought."
That warm water — also there last winter — could be an incubator for atmospheric rivers.

AccuWeather reports while Nate will raise the risk of isolated flooding over the interior eastern United States, the storm is likely to ease building drought conditions in some areas.
Significant impacts are likely in this area.
Southeast of the storm track, very little rain will fall.
"The heaviest rain is likely to develop to the immediate north and northeast of the storm center," according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Brett Rossio.
However, a general 1-3 inches is likely from the upper end of the Ohio Valley to much of the mid-Atlantic and New England. Locally higher amounts are likely in the central Appalachians.
Where the rain falls at a fast pace along the path, there is the likelihood of isolated urban and flash flooding.
As long as the bulk of the rain dose not occur in a couple of hours, the ground should be able to soak up the water with few problems.
However, motorists should use caution for extra slick conditions from fallen leaves and oil buildup.
Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be possible across the mid-Atlantic to southern New England Monday night into Tuesday.