Dry spell or Drought?
Jacksonville, Fla – Dry Spell vs. the Drought Indexes My yard looks dried up and it hasn’t rained in weeks.
Sure there are those nice wet Springs, but they tend to be very wet and they only happen about once every 5-6 years.
This year, 2017, our spring has been different than some springs, we started off dry.
Keetch-Byrum vs. Palmer Drought Indexes When we discuss fire danger the best drought index to follow is the Keetch-Byrum Drought Index.
Jacksonville is basically experiencing wet (blue) conditions.
The best longer term drought indicator is the Palmer Drought Index.
When all of the water restrictions were put into place in California where they went nearly a decade without above normal rainfall, this index showed burgundy red, for extreme drought.
The Palmer index around Jacksonville is just now showing longer term drought hints, just hints.
Yet, longer term, if the summer rains were to fail to show up, we could be looking at water restrictions in 2018.

Aid Workers Say That Drought-Hit Somalia Is ‘On the Brink of a Massive Catastrophe’.
(MOGADISHU, Somalia) — Life-threatening child malnutrition rates are rising to alarming levels in drought-hit Somalia, the international aid group Save the Children said Thursday.
A new survey found "very critical" levels of severe malnutrition in two of six districts assessed in some of the worst affected parts of Somalia.
"We are on the brink of a massive catastrophe in Somalia with the death of three quarters of the country’s livestock, a rapid increase of children suffering severe malnutrition and the depletion of water stores in dozens of communities," said Hassan Saadi Noor, Save the Children’s Somalia country director, who said he fears seeing "children dying in significant numbers."
Less than 10 percent of children in Somalia are currently registered in a nutrition program according to the study, which warns that children could start dying "in the near future" unless immediate action is taken such as a major and rapid scaling up of feeding schemes.
Read More: U.N. Says an $864 Million Appeal for Drought-Hit Somalia Is Only 31% Funded "Donors have stepped up in recent months, however such is the scale of this crisis that even more funding is needed to address malnutrition directly, including improving access to food and water," said Noor.
"Children must be treated for malnutrition now … Famine is a distinct possibility for Somalia.
It is an absolute travesty that this is even conceivable when just six years ago this same region was hit by a famine that killed over 250,000 people."
The drought has left 6.2 million people — more than half of the population of Somalia — in need of immediate lifesaving assistance and a further 8.3 million in Kenya and Ethiopia are also need of urgent help, he said.

Well it has been for Oklahoma City, as the metro is now longer in drought conditions.
Now technically, Oklahoma City is in the D0 drought level, or abnormally dry, but that level is not an official drought level.
The drought levels start at D1, which is a moderate drought.
With the heavy rain expected on Friday, it will like take a big bite out of whatever is left of the drought.
Will this rain Friday completely remove the drought?
Likely not, but it will likely drop the D2 severe drought level in eastern Oklahoma down a notch to the next level.
Remember, droughts are typically slow to build and slow to die, they just don’t dissolve overnight.
May and June are typically the two wettest months of the year, or the true wet season.
Even more good news, droughts are directly related to extreme heat during the summers in Oklahoma.
If Oklahoma goes into June with an extreme drought, typically we expect very hot conditions, or high chances of above-average temperatures.

Rain helps, but drought lingers in WNC.
ASHEVILLE, N.C. (WLOS) — Despite recent April showers, all of Western North Carolina remains in at least some category of drought.
The newest drought monitor came out Thursday morning, but it doesn’t show any change from last week even though the area has had rain.
The discrepancy is mostly because the drought monitor is compiled on Tuesday mornings, even though it’s released on Thursdays.
And more than half of the area’s rain this week fell after Tuesday morning.
According to the latest information, WNC remains in either moderate or severe drought.
But more counties, including most of Buncombe, are now in the lowest category of drought — moderately dry.
Most of the Upstate is in moderate drought, but there is still a sliver of extreme drought across Cconee and Pickens counties.
There should be some improvement on the drought monitor next week thanks to the recent showers and rain that is in forecast for the weekend.

Interactive map: How bad is Central Florida’s drought?.
ORLANDO, Fla. – The drought continues to worsen across Florida.
Orlando has a 10 inch rain deficit since October 2016.
"Seems as if after Hurricane Matthew, the rain just shut off," said certified meteorologist Brian Shields.
Much of Central Florida is under a moderate drought On March 21, much of Central Florida was under a abnormal or moderate drought.
Scroll for interactive map The most active months for wildfires are May and June Wildfire season in Florida goes year-round, but the most active months are May and June.
Fire activity increases, because this is when the temperatures start warming up quicker and also is toward the end of the dry season.
We will continue to monitor wildfire activity across Central Florida and will bring you the latest on Eyewitness News This morning starting at 5 a.m. and also during our afternoon and evening newscast starting at 4 p.m.
Check out the interactive map below for a close comparison of the drought conditions between March and April.
March 21, 2017 April 18, 2017 JuxtaposeJS © 2017 Cox Media Group.

Florida’s lack of rain the past few months, even by dry season standards, left airboats stuck in the wetlands of the Everglades. A Broward County Fire Rescue airboat had to be freed Wednesday after getting stuck in low water in the Everglades after helping to free a civilian airboat. Over the past two months, drought conditions have developed and worsened over a sizable swath of the Florida Peninsula. As of April 18, about half the state (46 percent) – an area including an estimated 10.2 million residents – was classified in drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor analysis. This is the largest swath of the Sunshine state in drought since April 2, 2013. The worst of the drought was a swath of central and southwest Florida, including Tampa/St. Petersburg, Fort Myers, Naples, Melbourne, and parts of the Orlando metro area. Orlando International Airport had yet to receive any measurable rainfall this month through April 19, only the second time that has happened dating to 1953. The paltry 0.10 inch of rain…

SCIENCE NEWS: Enhanced Delta smelt monitoring program helps fill the void; Sierra snowpack bigger than last 4 years combined; Report recommends integrated and community-based approaches to data and modeling for the Delta; and more ….
In science news this week: Wanted: More smelt data: Enhanced Delta smelt monitoring program helps fill the void; Sierra snowpack bigger than last 4 years combined; Report Recommends Integrated and Community-based Approaches to Data and Modeling for the Delta; Your comments requested on the draft 2017-2021 Delta Science Action Agenda; Tackling invasive iceplant; A decade of Delta research on juvenile salmon; A climatology of the California Current System from a network of underwater gliders; Study on impact of climate on snowpack loss in the Western US; and more … Wanted: More smelt data: Enhanced Delta smelt monitoring program helps fill the void: “Shortly after 6 a.m., boat crews with the U.S.
That’s enough snow to fill the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California, nearly 1,600 times.
Please click here to read the Draft 2017-2021 Science Action Agenda.” Independent Review Panel posts report for California Water Fix Aquatic Science Peer Review: An Independent Review Panel was convened by select staff of the Delta Stewardship Council’s Delta Science Program to provide the National Marine Fisheries Service, U.S.
… ” Read more from the FishBio blog here: Tackling invasive iceplant A decade of Delta research on juvenile salmon: “California’s Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta is unique among large West Coast estuaries in that it supports four distinct runs of Chinook salmon (Onchorhynchus tshawytscha) as well as Central Valley steelhead (O. mykiss).
… ” Read more from the FishBio blog here: A Decade of Delta Research on Juvenile Salmon A climatology of the California Current System from a network of underwater gliders: “A paper by Rudnick et al. published in Progress in Oceanography includes a climatology of the California Current System, a current moving south along the U.S. West Coast.
… ” Read mroe from Science Daily here: Study on impact of climate on snowpack loss in the Western US New era of Western wildfire demand new ways of protecting people, ecosystems: “Current wildfire policy can’t adequately protect people, homes and ecosystems from the longer, hotter fire seasons climate change is causing, according to a new paper led by the University of Colorado Boulder.
… ” Read more from Science Daily here: Retreating Yukon glacier caused a river to disappear 7 science innovations that are changing conservation: “In our still relatively brief existence, humans have evolved our way to an era many are now calling the Anthropocene – a new geological epoch defined by human impact on Earth.
… ” Read more from Science Daily here: Next 10 years critical for achieving climate goals April ENSO Update: Conflicting signals from the Pacific Ocean: “The tropical Pacific Ocean has been giving mixed signals recently, making a forecaster’s job even more difficult!
About Science News and Reports: This weekly feature, posted every Thursday, is a collection of the latest scientific research and reports with a focus on relevant issues to the Delta and to California water, although other issues such as climate change are sometimes included.

Ranchers in dry areas may need to reassess drought plans.
In light of the dry range conditions forecast for much of central and western South Dakota, cattle producers are encouraged to review their drought management plans.
"Areas in central South Dakota that were not in drought conditions last year, are experiencing dry conditions right now.
Kelly encouraged those cattle and forage producers entering their second season of drought conditions to continue with management actions taken last season and make necessary adjustments to this year’s drought plan if dry conditions persist.
To help with developing a drought management plan for the 2017 grazing season, Kelly outlines tools cattle producers and range managers can reference.
The first trigger date is based on growing conditions from the previous year.
"For example, much of western South Dakota was experiencing drought conditions last year, therefore average precipitation will not be enough to recharge soil moisture this year," Kelly said.
Kelly added that cattle producers in central South Dakota who had normal precipitation last year need to keep a very close eye on precipitation and grass conditions for the rest of this spring.
"Producers in these areas need to have a drought management action plan in place if dry conditions persist and a reduction in livestock numbers is needed," Kelly said.
Roughly May 15 is another trigger date Kelly encouraged cattle and forage producers to be aware of.

More rain eases drought across state.
Precipitation totals from Wednesday and Thursday’s rain ranged from .23 of an inch in Stratford to .43 of an inch in Darien, according to the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network.
And, we have more rain in the forecast through at least Friday and a chance of more showers during the weekend.
Saturday looks the the better weather day of the weekend with party sunny skies with a high of 57 degrees, Periods of light rain can be expected Thursday morning with breaks in the precipitation and possibly just cloud cover this afternoon.
Light and variable wind.
New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45.
Light and variable wind.
Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of light rain after midnight.
Sunday: A 40 percent chance of light rain.

Long drought changed California forever.
But just as tougher building codes and better emergency planning follow major earthquakes, the brutally dry years from 2012 to 2016 are already leaving a legacy, experts say, changing how Californians use water for generations to come.
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