SYDNEY (AFP) – Australia is setting up a billion-dollar fund to "future proof" the country against droughts, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said on Friday (Oct 26), as farmers struggle with a "big dry" forecast set to continue for months.
Eastern Australia has been hit by a crippling drought – in some areas for several years – that has forced graziers to hand-feed their stock, sell them or even shoot them dead to stay afloat.
The unfolding crisis has sparked a raft of support measures from the government, including A$1.8 billion (S$1.75 billion) in financial aid for farmers and local communities launched in August.
Mr Morrison said a new fund with a kitty of A$3.9 billion would be established to pay for drought resilience and water projects in the coming decade.
"(It) means we better future-proof against drought over the next 10 years and beyond," Mr Morrison told commercial broadcaster Channel Nine ahead of a summit with agricultural leaders to discuss the drought.
The government’s Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARES) said at the summit that the drought, while severe, covered a smaller area compared to a previous extreme dry in 2002-03.
The drought, coupled with damaging frost in some areas, is set to produce the smallest winter grain crop in 10 years, according to a forecast from Rabobank, a specialist agribusiness bank.
"The 2018/19 winter crop will go down as one of the worst in eastern Australia’s history," it said in a report this week.
The Bureau of Meteorology, meanwhile, forecast that the next three months would be drier and warmer than average, meaning "a low chance of recovery for drought-affected areas of eastern Australia".
Farmers have received some rain relief over the past month, but experts say the wet spell is not enough to break the drought after the extended dry period.

Bureau of Meteorology agriculture general manager Peter Stone has explained how the drought will worsen in parts of southern Australia.
Bureau of Meteorology agriculture general manager Peter Stone said hot and dry conditions were likely to continue with an 80 per cent chance of above average temperatures over summer.
"It has been unusually hot and dry in most of Australia this year and the year before and this is likely to continue for the next six months," Mr Stone told the National Drought Summit in Canberra.
"Drought is normal, as is water surplus in Australia but it’s not predictable," Mr Stone said.
National water storage is at about 58 per cent, down 12 per cent on this time last year, while in NSW levels are at 37 per cent.
Mr Stone said water storage levels were not expected to rise in the near future, with reduced supply and increased demand likely to see future falls.
Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences executive director Steve Hatfield-Dodds told the summit the current drought is severe in some regions but covered a smaller area than previous events.
Climate effects are currently severe, but farm incomes are likely to be less affected than in previous droughts.
Dr Hatfield-Dodds warned of tensions between helping drought-affected farmers and promoting the best long-term industry performance.
"Supporting drought-affected farms has the potential, depending on how it’s done, to slow the process of farm consolidation and the growth in farm scale," he said,

Govt to conduct rainmaking, merge water-related agencies The Department of Royal Irrigation (DRI) says there will be enough water for harvesting in the dry season, but the drought will continue in the northern regions.
The volume of water in four major dams — Bhumibol dam in Tak province, Sirikit dam in Uttaradit, Pa Sak Jolasid dam in Lop Buri province and Kwai Noi Bumrung Dan dam in Phitsanulok province — are at more than 70% of their capacities, which is a necessary level to supply farm areas.
He blamed falling water levels in Ubolratana dam in Khon Kaen and Mae Mok reservoir in Sukhothai province, which each hold less than 35% of their capacity.
About 410,000 paddy fields in both provinces do not have enough water to supply them through the dry season.
Five major reservoirs are also drying up, with water levels at less than 50% of capacity.
The Office of National Water Resources has estimated that over two million rai in the northern regions have already been damaged by the drought.
The situation, however, looks brighter for the eastern region.
Water in eastern reservoirs exceeds 70% of holding capacity — plenty for supplying fruit orchards and industrial activity in the Eastern Seaboard in Rayong province, Mr Thongplew said.
Currently, the department has conducted artificial rainmaking for 4,299 flights over 223 days to provide enough rain to feed 181 million rai of farmland in 58 provinces.
In another development, Gen Chatchai Sarikulya, deputy prime minister, told the media 38 water-related agencies will be relocated to a new organisation, the Ministry of Water, which is expected to take effect in the near future.

“You don’t often see odds that high,” said Dr Andrew Watkins, the bureau’s manager of long-range forecasts.
“Farmers would have preferred to see an above average rainfall forecast, and we wish we could have provided one too,” said Watkins.
“Unfortunately what the farmers need is several months of above average rainfall to catch up.
“At the moment the soils across inland Australia are very dry, and that means the soils are able to heat up a lot – that is what actually drives heatwaves.
When it builds up, it has to go somewhere.” On Friday, Queensland was already sweltering through 40C temperatures, up to 10C above average for October.
High chance of El Niño in Australia, worsening heat, bushfires and drought Read more In Birdsville, in the state’s interior, the temperature hit 44.7C on Thursday, setting a new record for its hottest October day.
Watkins said the summer’s hot, dry conditions were due to a developing El Niño event combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
The bureau is currently forecasting a 70% chance of an El Niño forming before the end of the year.
“But if El Niño forms, we won’t really expect to see any rainfall until autumn.” The bureau’s report also found that the outlook was being influenced by “the long-term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures”.
“The temperatures have been rising bit by bit for the past 100 or 110 years, and each drought has been a bit warmer than the last.”

Months of scarce rainfall and hot sunny weather drove water levels on the Rhine to a record low, forcing ship operators to suspend services to keep vessels from running aground.
"We haven’t had any new ships in Cologne since last week—they stop in Duisburg" 80 kilometres (50 miles) north, Oliver Grossmann, head of shipping company CTS, told AFP.
He said that under normal conditions, "three or four" of his big vessels would stop each day in the city known for its Gothic cathedral.
The few barges still chugging along the river have had to drastically reduce their cargo to stay afloat.
Sitting in his office overlooking the mountain of containers, Grossman said rail links can only fill part of the gap as long as river transport is paralysed because of a lack of infrastructure and train engineers.
‘Need intense, widespread rainfall’ At the entrance to the port of Duisburg, a small tower houses a Rhine measuring station.
On its roof are two LED panels reading 1.55 meters (5.09 feet).
"This is the lowest level ever measured here," said Jan Boehme, a hydrologist with the Water and Shipping Authority.
But since the dry spell began, industrial giant Thyssenkrupp has had to cut back production at its Duisburg plant "because a sufficient supply of raw material cannot be assured", a company spokesman said.
Abandoned and long-submerged bicycles have resurfaced by the hundreds.

A study was therefore carried out in India to assess the resilience of terrestrial ecosystem to drought at the district and State level.
Based on data from 2000 to 2014, only 241 of 634 (about 38%) districts were found to be resilient to drought or dry conditions.
While the resilient districts covered nearly 32% of the area of India, the remaining 68% was non-resilient, with the severely non-resilient districts alone covering nearly 30% of India.
In general, districts with predominant forest cover had better resilience than those districts were cropland dominated.
The study found about 75 districts had forest cover that was greater than 40% of the district area, and more than half of such districts were resilient.
“A resilient ecosystem is one which can absorb drought by increasing or maintaining its efficiency to use water to sustain its productivity,” Dr. Goyal said.
Since forests, in general, have greater resilience, most of the districts in the forest-dominated northeast and north India were either resilient or slightly non-resilient.
Despite the dense forest cover in the Western Ghats, Kerala had only about 19% resilience while Sikkim had 100%.
Also, the evapotranspiration is higher in the Western Ghats than in northeast,” Prof. Goyal said.
In general, States in the lower Himalayan regions had higher resilient areas.

A SOGGY weekend in some parts of the region has seen monthly rainfall totals exceeded for some locations.
The Central West and Central Tablelands may still be declared in drought by the NSW Department of Primary Industries, but recent rains have left many areas with a green tinge.
Rainfall was recorded in most locations on the weekend, with Mudgee receiving the most with 15.2 millimetres recorded across the two days.
In Wellington, 9.6mm of rain was recorded on the weekend, while Cowra received 8.0mm, Young (7.2mm) and Dubbo (6.6).
All other locations received less than two millimetres of rainfall on the weekend.
Story continues under weather radar The latest downpours have boosted the Bureau of Meteorology’s rain gauges in Dubbo, Forbes, Lithgow, Mudgee and Wellington, and all have now recorded above the long-term average falls for October.
Wellington has received the most rain this month with 94mm, which is significantly above the median of 55.7mm for October.
Dubbo and Lithgow have received 90.4mm, which is up on the average 45.6mm and 67.7mm received respectively.
While 68.6mm of rain has fallen in Forbes (up on the long-term average of 39.4mm) and 57.4mm in Mudgee which is up a little on the median of 50.9mm.

This equates to 29.3 million tonnes of crop – worth more than $414 million – lost due to drought and severe overnight frosts.
The full extent of the year’s once-in-a-generation drought has been revealed, just as the worst affected areas have finally been dosed with some long awaited for rain Rabobank’s Winter Crop Production Outlook – Running On Empty – estimated Australia’s total harvest is expected to drop 23 per cent on last year’s figure According to Rabobank’s agricultural analyst Wes Lefroy, prices will be pushed up in order to offset lower crop yields for some growers.
The shortage of crops is already threatening to send grocery prices through the roof after Coles’ prices rose in the September quarter for the first time in almost ten years.
‘For vast regions of the eastern states, there will be no harvest, and where there is a harvest, yields will be anywhere between 30 per cent and 50 per cent down on average,’ the Winter Crop report says.
Due to the bone-dry conditions in the eastern states throughout winter, Western Australia will contribute more than half of the national winter crop for the first time in 20 years.
Due to the bone-dry conditions in the eastern states throughout winter, Western Australia will contribute more than half of the national winter crop for the first time in 20 years In total, Australian grain exports are expected to drop by 50 per cent on last year, including a 50 per cent drop in wheat exports, a 48 per cent drop in barley exports, and a 41 per cent drop in canola exports In total, Australian grain exports are expected to drop by 50 per cent on last year, including a 50 per cent drop in wheat exports, a 48 per cent drop in barley exports, and a 41 per cent drop in canola exports.
However, while supermarket power players have been reluctant pass the cost of the drought onto customers – particularly in the case of $1 milk – they have agreed to alter supply-driven price rises in categories such as chicken and dairy products.
… Over the past six months, large areas of NSW have experienced their lowest rainfall on record, and the rest of the state isn’t far behind.
Almost all of the state has received less than 20 per cent of its usual rainfall since January, and Australia as a whole just experienced its warmest and driest July in 20 years.
It has also led to farmers’ forced culling of thousands of starving livestock with no other choice but to shoot suffering animals and bury them in mass graves.

The presentation by State Engineer Pat Tyrrell, Chris Brown of the Wyoming Attorney General’s Office and Steve Wolff of the SEO highlighted the serious situation that upstream water users face as the Colorado River Basin’s flows decrease and key reservoirs show critical declines, particularly at Lake Powell and Lake Mead.
In the worst-case scenario, Tyrrell said, some Wyoming water users could be curtailed if drought contingency plans for the Upper and Lower Colorado River basins are not implemented soon.
That equates to an average of 7.5 million acre-feet per year for 10 years.
From 2014 to 2018, some irrigators were paid to voluntarily decrease water use from what their water rights would allow “and help protect storage.” Drought contingency plans Wyoming is one of seven Colorado basin states being called upon to deal with potentially critical water shortages that could occur at Lake Powell in the Upper Colorado and Lake Mead for the Lower Colorado basin.
The draft Upper Basin Drought Contingency Plan has two agreements, the “Drought Response Operations Agreement” and “Demand Management Storage Agreement.” The Lower Basin, which gets most of its water from the Upper Basin, has its own draft of agreements.
The Upper Basin DCP would help protect critical elevations at Lake Powell for continued compliance with the 1922 Colorado River Compact and “authorize storage of water conserved in the Upper Basin” in as-yet undeveloped federal programs.
Wyoming’s share Under the Upper Colorado River Compact, Wyoming’s annual allocation is 14 percent of the available supply at about 1.04 million acre-feet.
… The water rights after 1922 are what could be curtailed for use.” Water officials at all levels are considering how to increase storage in both Lake Mead and Lake Powell with conservation and management programs.
“Under certain rules, water users in the Lower Basin can get water back out later if they leave it in Lake Mead now,” Tyrrell said.
First, each Upper Basin state has to agree on the DCPs, Tyrrell said.

Mumbai: Finally, Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has admitted that parts of the state are in the grip of a drought and assured farmers they will soon get relief.
Fadnavis said on Monday the state government would soon issue a notification to officially declare a drought-like situation in 179 talukas across the state.
Fadnavis was in Nashik district with President Ram Nath Kovind to attend a function at ‘Mangi-Tungi’, a place of religious importance for the Jain community.
Addressing a public rally, Fadnavis said, the initial procedure to announce drought has almost been completed.
Once, the drought-like situation is announced, the villagers can get relief from paying instalments on crop loans, to district co-operative banks and from the nationalised banks.
Farmers will also get relief from paying electricity bills for agriculture pump and they are exempt from various taxes, including agriculture tax and housing tax.
Children of farmers from drought-prone areas also get exemption from paying educational fees.
The district administration approves water tankers to provide drinking water to these drought-affected villages.
Ram Shinde, the minister for water conservation, said, the Jal Yukta Shivar scheme has succeeded in increasing ground water levels by four metres in Marathwada region.
“Due to the Jal Yukta Shivar, water percolated into the ponds created and the farmers have successfully managed to save crops even though there has been below-average rainfall in the region,” said Shinde.