By Mpho Tebele Gaborone- The United Nations has warned of a looming crisis as delayed rains and below-average precipitation since October have reduced cereal production prospects and lowered pasture yields in Southern Africa.
This is contained in the latest report of the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) detailing the impact of reduced rains, which is expected to have caused a contraction in the area planted and lowered yield prospects in most parts of the region.
The report states that “Since the start of the 2018/19 cropping season in October, anomalous dry conditions have developed across parts of Southern Africa, with more intense moisture deficits registered in Botswana, Namibia and South Africa, in addition to the western parts of Madagascar.” In Botswana, the report says, rainfall in October and November was about 60-65% below average.
The report says rangeland provides the bulk of feed requirements and the use of supplementary feed is not a common practice among the majority of households in the traditional farming sector.
Some of the lowest cumulative rainfall was registered in central and southern parts of Otjozondjupa Region, the bulk of Omaheke Region, eastern parts of Hardap and //Kharas regions, several pockets in Erongo, Kunene, Khomas (eastern parts) and the north-eastern regions (including the regions of Omusati, Oshana and Oshikoto), where a significant proportion of communal farming households are located.
In the large cereal‑producing provinces of Free State and North West, reduced rains delayed plantings and are expected to have curbed the area sown; cumulative rainfall at the provincial level has been 40‑50% below average since October.
As a result, the area sown to cereal crops is estimated to have contracted for the 2018/19 cropping season to an average or below‑average level in these countries.
Overall, the 2019 cereal production outlook in most parts of Southern Africa has diminished since the start of the season and average to below-average harvests are foreseen,” the report says.
“It further warns that livestock production is also expected to be curtailed by the dry weather conditions.
Reports indicate that South Africa’s agricultural industry body AgriSA will approach banks, agribusiness and government to raise R3 billion (US$220 million) to help farmers hit by severe drought.

The Harrises are charged with breaching an approval associated with their water licence for Beemery farm, a large property on the banks of the Barwon River.
The water licence they held entitled them to pump water from the Barwon River for irrigation using up to four pumps.
But an associated approval said they could pump only when the flows in the Barwon-Darling system, as measured at the Bourke weir, exceeded 4,894 megalitres a day.
Damning Murray-Darling report says NSW ‘well behind’ on water-sharing plans Read more If the river flow fell below that flow rate they were to cease pumping.
In 2017 the ABC’s Four Corners program alleged that some cotton farmers along the Barwon-Darling were illegally pumping water during low flow events and pumping during embargoes which are designed to protect environmental flows as they pass down the river.
The Harrises were named in the program as having taken water during low flow events, in breach of the state’s water laws.
Between 22 June and 30 June 2016 – when the offences are said to have occurred – Aspinall said there were records showing that the Harrises were pumping water despite the flows at the Bourke gauge having fallen to as low as 2,500 megalitres.
The Four Corners report has led to intense scrutiny of the NSW government’s poor record of enforcement of its water laws, particularly against big irrigators.
In the first day of the hearing, Elliott, for the Harrises, foreshadowed calling an expert witness, Dr Daniel Martins, to challenge the accuracy of the flows at the Bourke gauge.
This measurement is central to the charges.

More Australian ranchers who struggled to keep their cattle alive during a prolonged drought last year are now battling to save herds from record-breaking floods inundating the northeast of the country, officials said on Wednesday.
Australia’s military has been called in to drop fodder to cattle stranded by floodwaters in Queensland state to stop them from starving, Agriculture Minister David Littleproud said, with their owners still marooned in their farmsteads.
The losses for farmers from the floods were likely to be in the "hundreds of millions of dollars" he said.
While the late arrival of the monsoon in mid-January initially sparked joy among graziers as it brought much-needed rain to the parched lands, celebrations turned to horror as incessant downpours destroyed herds and washed away properties.
"Stock losses will be much higher than normal, because drought-weakened cattle are more susceptible to being caught and drowned in floodwaters or dying of exposure in the wet, cold winds," Guerin said.
Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Vinord Anand said some drought-affected communities received hardly any rain in December and the start of the year before the heavens opened.
"It’s like the flicking of a switch — it’s been dry, dry, dry and then suddenly you get a year’s worth of rain in 37 days," he told AFP.
Farmer Rachael Anderson said she expected that some 200 cattle at a station she manages near Julia Creek township have so far died.
"We thought that they would have been OK, but with the way this flood has come, we really don’t think there is much hope," Anderson told national broadcaster ABC.
We’d probably almost (would) have been better off in the drought."

Recent storms have drenched enough of California that some areas have almost twice their average rainfall totals.
Even drought status has been pushed away for all but the southwest and north edges of the state.
“In wet years, we have to prepare for dry years, and in dry years for wet years.” Mild to moderate drought spread over the state during last year’s dry winter, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
As recently as Thanksgiving 2018, 100 percent of California was considered to be somewhere between abnormally dry and in extreme drought.
Now some areas have 150 percent to 180 percent rainfall of what they would normally receive by this point in the water year, which runs Oct. 1 through Sept. 30.
“Things have been coming up, though.” The previous week, the coastal counties from San Diego to San Luis Obispo were all in moderate drought, as were most of Riverside and Imperial counties and the southwest corner of San Bernardino County.
Now, that area has been reduced to San Diego County, part of western Riverside County, southeastern Orange County and a sliver of western Imperial County.
Lund said water agencies in those areas are prepared.
“We have two months to go in the wet season, so it could go either way.” The Drought Monitor report, the rainfall accumulations and a measurement that showed the Sierra snowpack was at exactly 100 percent of its historical average on Jan. 31 has been a stream of recent good news for California’s water watchers.
In most areas, however, it hasn’t been quite as rainy as 2017, when an atmospheric river parked over the Pacific Ocean soaked the state and broke a five-year drought, with the state’s second-highest recorded runoff.

The island’s administrator, Eric Hutchinson, has watched the island become increasingly dry over the past two years, and said water security was a critical factor in creating a sustainable future for Norfolk Island.
As residents’ and businesses’ rainwater tanks run dry, the island’s water carters, like Greg Horrocks, have been busily topping up supplies with treated bore water.
"I’m not too sure what’s going to happen [to bore stores] in another six months’ time if we don’t get good rain."
Mr Jauczius assessed the island’s rainfall data, which dates back to 1890, and said there had been an "incredible influx of dry years" over the past 40 years.
There are 248 bores registered with the local council.
Water restrictions cannot be enforced on the island because water is mostly privatised through the use of water tanks, meaning the local council can only make recommendations for residents and visitors to conserve water.
For Mr Horrocks, the prospect of the island running out of water is unimaginable.
Not the only island in drought Neighbouring Lord Howe Island is 890km south-west of Norfolk Island and has also been struggling under drought conditions.
In 2018 Lord Howe Island endured its driest year in 132 years, receiving about 500mm less rainfall than the average.
"It’s certainly a difficult exercise for it to bring all that water as well when it’s usually laden with all of the materials and goods that the island requires," Mr Adams said.

But, extreme conditions and fish kills are natural here in the “land of drought and flooding rains”, right?
Heatwaves and drought have always occurred here but unsustainable levels of water extraction and climate change are much more recent.
Bottled water is now being trucked to Walgett where the largest Murray cod on record was swimming during the Federation Drought.
Large irrigated farms and harvesting of flood waters have been implicated in increasing water stress.
Cubbie Station doesn’t pump water from rivers that flow through Walgett, nor has it reported harvesting water since April 2017.
The floodwaters harvested in recent years by irrigators could have been saved through water storage and wetlands to maintain dry-land agriculture and ecosystems during the current heatwave.
Minimum environmental flow standards have either not been in place or have been insufficient to sustain dry-land rivers.
Agriculture and water policies must be sufficiently robust to keep rivers flowing and communities supplied with clean water despite extreme conditions.
Instead, funding for communities must be targeted at helping farmers adapt and growing industries that will be viable during water scarcity, climate change and extreme conditions.
This does not have to be the dirge of the Darling, regional communities or farming.

Drought conditions in across NSW have re-intensified, despite summer storms bringing some relief along the east coast.
In its latest seasonal update, the Department of Primary Industries on Friday said 99.8 per cent of the state is still experiencing drought conditions.
Some areas recorded the lowest January rainfall totals in 100 years, while for many it was the driest in two decades.
"Extreme heat was also experienced across NSW in January with 90 per cent of the state experiencing its warmest January in history," the DPI said.
Farm water supplies remain critically low for many areas in western and southern NSW, much of which is experiencing "intense drought".
"We know this will come as no surprise to regional communities across NSW but we also know the lack of forecast rain is making the situation for producers extremely dire," Primary Industries Minister Niall Blair said in a statement.
Mr Blair said drought will be discussed at a meeting of agriculture ministers on Friday, as will climate change and "how all states and the Commonwealth can better address how a changing climate is impacting our land and environment".
"We know that there will be future droughts and the only way we can limit the impact is to start preparing for the future more effectively."
The Nature Conservation Council of NSW said it was positive to see the coalition recognising the impact of climate change but unless there was a credible plan "it’s just more hot air and wasted time".
"We need more than mumblings about ‘shifting sands’ from our politicians," chief executive Kate Smolski said in a statement on Friday.

New Delhi, Feb 5 (PTI) The Karnataka government Tuesday submitted a memorandum to the central government seeking a relief assistance of Rs 2,064.30 crore to drought-hit farmers in the ongoing rabi season.
The state revenue minister R V Deshpande called on Home Minister Rajnath Singh and apprised him about the severe drought prevailing in the southern state.
Submitting a memorandum seeking Rs 2,064.30 crore central assistance for drought-hit farmers in the rabi season, Deshpande requested the minister to consider releasing higher amount for those affected due to drought during the kharif season as well.
It may be noted that the Centre had released Rs 949.49 crore to the state government against the demand of over Rs 2,400 crore to provide relief to farmers who incurred crop loss during the 2018 kharif season.
Whereas for Maharasthra, higher amount has been provided based on the new norms," Deshpande told reporters after meeting the central minister.
Earlier central drought guidelines provided for relief amount for crop loss of up to 33 per cent incurred in the state, while new norms allow for crop loss up to 50 per cent, he said.
"We have asked the Centre to release additional amount for kharif-drought based on new drought guidelines," he added.
According to the state government, Karnataka — which faced drought during the kharif season of the 2018-19 crop year (July-June) — has declared 156 taluks out of 176 in 11 districts as drought-hit during the rabi season as well, incurring an estimated crop loss of about Rs 11,384.47 crore.
As per the official data, the rabi crops were sown in 27.89 lakh hectare this year as against 31.80 lakh hectare in the year-ago.
The state government informed the Centre that the water level in reservoirs has depleted and it has decided to use existing water for drinking water purpose as the first priority.

The precipitation in the Basin is measured at two sites — Crater Lake-Klamath Regional Airport and by a Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) gauge in the mountains.
Measurements show the Basin is between 72 (snow water equivalent) and 79 percent of normal (measured at airport).
Klamath Falls is classified as being in severe drought and central to northern Klamath County is classified as extreme drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, though an official declaration for drought has not been made for the county.
“What makes it worse is that last year was bad.
So the reservoirs were lowered through the summer quite a bit and we haven’t caught up to near normal in most places.
“If you have two bad years in a row, it especially impacts the reservoirs,” Sandler added.
Stream flows have been below normal in the last month, Sandler said, and the snowpack and precipitation matches that trend.
Sandler said the forecast is subject to change, and emphasized that spring can make a substantial difference in the outcome of the water year.

Patchy storms prior to Christmas bolstered the spirit of some districts, but farmers have since returned to handfeeding and working through options to keep breeding stock with no reprieve in sight, according to Bathurst Centacare drought assistance project coordinator Louise Hennessy.
“The drought has affected 100 per cent of the state with differing severity, but for some areas the drought has been protracted,” she said.
“Now the majority (of farms) in the west are back to conditions as they were before Christmas.
Farmers are looking at their plans and what their options are.” Ms Hennessy said Catholic social services, including St Vincent de Paul and Centacare, were working together with other agencies, including from government, to help get the best support to farming families and communities in need and to avoid unnecessary frustration.
“Centacare is working in partnership with the many other government and non-government services in this drought and the benefit of this is so important because, with our network and links, we are able to refer someone we see who may have come for counselling, to the right place – whether it be for financial support, for information about stock management and welfare or how to get some funding and support to have a social get-together for their community,” she said.
He said the impact of the prolonged drought was severe.
“This is my first experience of drought in Australia.
“I have visited them on their properties and some stock like sheep need to be put down.” On a practical level, Fr Jaboneta said the parish school was offering fee relief for farming families to help with school fees and Catholic social services were providing help.
“Even in our Masses here, I have included prayers for rain, so we’ve been asking people to pray for rain for us,” he said.
Centacare Bathurst has a drought support appeal and are able to offer services without cost to anyone in the rural community affected by drought, go to: http://www.centacarebathurst.com.au/Home The Department of Primary Industries “Drought Hub”: https://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/climate-and-emergencies/droughthub With thanks to the ACBC.