Following an abnormally dry winter, the southwestern US was off to a rough start for the Spring and Summer months with drought categories climbing to extreme to exceptional conditions.
With dry fuels in place, this leaves the land vulnerable for wildfires as conditions continue to heat up across the area.
Unfortunately, several states now contending with active wildfires in the region from parts of the western New Mexico in the Gila National Forest all the way north into parts of the San Juans around Durango, CO.
The wildfire in Durango, CO is only a mere 15% contained and firefighters are still working endlessly to mitigate the flames.
Thankfully, good news coming out of the Ute Park Fire in New Mexico which is nearly 100% contained but the charred land left behind will make much of the terrain susceptible to mudslides as the area is forecasted to receive heavy rain by the weekend.
The good news is there is rain in the forecast for the weekend.
What is left of Bud will continue to track into the southwest reaching southern Arizona by Friday and New Mexico and southern Colorado by Saturday.
The medicine, in this case, is the moisture of course and the side effect will be the risk for flash flooding across the desert terrain by this weekend.
Please exercise caution if you plan to be in these areas this weekend.
Meteorologist Merry Matthews

Three-dimensional measurements of the central Brazilian Amazon rainforest have given NASA researchers a detailed window into the high number of branch falls and tree mortality that occur in response to drought conditions.
In a rainforest as vast as the Amazon, estimating the number of dying or damaged trees, where only branches may fall, is extremely difficult and has been a long-standing challenge.
Analyzing the three surveys, the team used the LiDAR data to detect new gaps in the canopy where a tree or branch had fallen in the months between observations.
During the non-El Niño period from 2013 to 2014, the branch and tree fall events altered 1.8 percent of the forest canopy in the study area, a small number on the surface but scaled up to the size of the entire Amazon, it’s the equivalent of losing canopy trees or branches over 38,000 square miles, or the area of Kentucky.
Tree and branch mortality was 65 percent higher during the El Niño drought period from 2014 to 2016, or 65,000 square miles, the size of Wisconsin.
"Because it’s a big forest, even a subtle shift in an El Niño year has a big impact on the total carbon budget of the forest," said Morton, referring to the balance between how much carbon dioxide trees remove from the atmosphere to build their trunk, branches, and leaves as they grow versus the amount that returns to the atmosphere when trees die and decompose.
Surprisingly, the scientists found that deaths for all tree sizes, as well as the number of smaller branch falls, increased at about the same rate.
If droughts were to preferentially kill large trees, it would boost the total amount of carbon that’s lost from drought as opposed to other disturbance types," he said.
To understand the relationship between the gaps seen by the airborne LiDAR system from above and the multiple layers of canopy and understory below, Morton’s colleague Veronika Leitold at Goddard and a team of collaborating scientists at the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation and the Federal University of Western Pará conducted field measurements underneath observed gaps in the canopy to measure the woody material that had fallen to the ground.
If the number of trees present declines on a large scale, that adds up to a lot of carbon dioxide left in the atmosphere to contribute to greenhouse warming, which can feed the cycle of the Amazon seeing more droughts in the future.

In early June, I am standing outside of a home in Kabul, Afghanistan, watching a large drilling machine parked on what was once a lovely garden, now a muddy patch.
Soon workers arrive for another noisy, dusty day of digging for water.
The well dried up a week ago.
As of today, the household, home to several members of the group Afghan Peace Volunteers, has no water.
The current population, estimated around 4.5 million, is expected to reach 9 million by 2050.
The estimated groundwater potential is enough to supply only 2 million inhabitants with water.
Alarming reports say that drought now afflicts 20 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces.
It’s difficult to imagine that Afghanistan, already burdened by 40 years of war, will escape eventual water wars.
Despite spending hundreds of billions of dollars on non-military aid to Afghanistan, the United States has done little to improve Afghanistan’s infrastructure or alleviate its alarming water crisis.
On May 13, a single-file procession of Pashto men started off on a 400-mile trek along dusty roads from Helmand to Kabul, to call for the Afghan government and the warring parties to end the war.

With the Colorado River Basin facing yet another year of water scarcity, the National Young Farmers Coalition brings young farmers from impacted states to Washington, D.C., to advocate for farm bill programs that promote drought resilience and enable a new generation of farmers to grow the nation’s food supply.
They’re here to fight for their livelihoods, and for the future of American agriculture,” said Erin Foster West, policy specialist for NYFC.
“As any farmer will tell you, June is a very difficult time to leave the farm.
That’s how important this Farm Bill is to their futures.
America’s farm population is aging rapidly, and hundreds of millions of acres of U.S. farmland will change hands in the next two decades.
There’s no question that our nation needs more young farmers, and young farmers need better support for drought and climate resilience, access to credit and affordable farmland, and opportunities for training and mentorship.” One such producer, Dan Waldvogle, a rancher and NYFC member from Colorado, will be coming out to D.C. to meet with his representatives as part of the fly-in.
It can be particularly difficult for beginning farmers to withstand these events.
I feel that it is extremely important that the 2018 farm bill have a hearty safety net and conservation programs directed toward creating resilience for the next generation of farmers and ranchers.
Among the legislators the farmers are scheduled to meet are members and staff of the Senate and House Agriculture and Natural Resource Committees including: Senators Michael Bennet (D-CO), Michael Gardner (R-CO), John Barrasso (R-WY), Martin Heinrich (R-NM), and Jeff Flake (R-AZ); as well as Representatives Scott Tipton (R-CO), Doug Lamborn (R-CO), Liz Cheney (R-WY), Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM), and Tom O’Halleran (D-AZ).
Visit NYFC on the web at www.youngfarmers.org, and on Twitter,Facebook, YouTubeandInstagram.

Indian mining giant Adani is seeking to dodge federal scrutiny of its plan to build a pipeline pumping billions of litres of water from a river in drought-stricken central Queensland to feed its Carmichael mega-mine.
The $16.5 billion Carmichael project would be Australia’s largest coal mine and would open Queensland’s Galilee Basin to further coal development.
Large coal mines require federal approval if they are likely to have a significant impact on a water resource.
This is known as the water trigger.
The documents show Adani claims the water trigger applies only to water used in the extraction of coal, and the pipeline plan is not captured because the water to be pumped “is not part of the extraction process”.
However, in its plan Adani subsequently justifies the need for the pipeline, saying “water is a major component in the production of coal for the operational phase of mining”.
“The more I look at this [Carmichael] project and the way the company has dealt with different layers of government the more sceptical I have become.” BESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswyBESbswy The Carmichael mine is likely to feature prominently in the next federal election campaign and the mine’s opponents have called on Labor to use Commonwealth powers to scupper the project should it win government.
An Adani Australia spokeswoman said the pipeline referral to the federal government "relates only to the construction of this infrastructure" and water use is already approved.
She said the company was "committed to protecting the environment" during construction of the pipeline.
“Adani is apparently trying to sneak through approval for a massive water scheme without a full environmental assessment … in our view that’s an activity which is absolutely required to go through the water trigger,” she said.

"The drought is something similar with volcano eruption, you can’t protect yourself against it.
The plants can’t absorb fertilizers, vegetation has stopped, the plant roots are damaged," Kestutis Sujeta, Chairman of Lithuanian Farmers Union Lazdijai department was quoted as saying by news agency Elta.
Due to the drought, manufacturing of feedstuff for domestic animals have significantly dropped," Stasys Supranavicius, head of agricultural department at Alytus district municipality, was quoted as saying in a separate statement released on Monday.
Lazdijai and Alytus are among the five municipalities where Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service officially declared drought last week, together with Marijampole, Trakai district and Kalvarija municipalities.
Lithuania’s Ministry of Agriculture said it was monitoring the situation.
"We expect that the largest part of losses will be compensated by insurance.
However, if extreme situation is declared due to the lost crops, we will look for possibilities to help farmers," said Rimantas Krasuckis, director of the Department of Agricultural Manufacturing and Food Industry at the ministry.
The last time Lithuania declared a drought, which lasted few days, was in 2015, according to Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service.
But as for the current drought, meteorologists don’t exclude the possibility that drought will continue until July.
In autumn 2017, more than 10 Lithuanian municipalities declared an emergency situation due to heavy rains.

JOHANNESBURG – Western Cape locals can breathe a small sigh of relief on Monday after dam levels jumped 6,5 percentage points compared to the same time last year.
“The average level for dams across the Western Cape for the week starting 11 June was 25.9%,” a statement said.
This was higher than the 23,8 percent recorded last week and the 19.4 percent at the same time in 2017.
The latest figures were released by Western Cape Local Government and Environmental Affairs MEC Anton Bredell on Monday.
He said while dam levels were up, the drought in the province is still far from over.
“Most major dams in the Western Cape are showing slight increases,” Bredell said.
READ: Cold front to bring desperately needed rain to drought-hit Cape “The Voëlvlei dam, Theewaterskloof and Bergriver are all showing slight improvements.” “A lot more rain is needed before the end of the winter season.
The latest predictions indicate we are in for some cold and wet weather over the next ten days.
From Thursday an intense cold front is expected in the Western Cape for what seems to be about a week.” eNCA

JERUSALEM, Israel – Following five consecutive years of below-average winter rainfall, Israeli cabinet ministers passed a $30 million measure to replenish the Sea of Galilee and seven northern streams severely affected by the drought.
For the first time ever, desalinated water will be pumped into the Kinneret to help replenish its water level, as well as the streams in the north.
The plan also includes construction of two new desalination plants, one on the coast of the Western Galilee and a second in Sorek, where the world’s most advanced and largest desalination plant came on line in 2014.
Officials hope to begin pumping desalinated water into the Kinneret next year, increasing the amount to 100 million cubic meters over a four-year period.
At Sunday’s cabinet meeting, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the initiative as "turning the Kinneret into a reservoir for desalinated water."
"Today the cabinet will approve an urgent plan to deal with the drought problem.
Usually we pump water from the Kinneret and bring to various parts of the country.
Here we are bringing desalinated water to the Kinneret because as we desalinate water on the coast in the water it goes to waste because there is no use for it.
"The second thing is the rehabilitation of seven streams.
Minister of National Infrastructure, Energy and Water Resources Yuval Steinitz then explained the plan’s innovative features, including construction of the new desalination plants, in more detail.

With no relief in sight, farmers and ranchers are having to find ways to deal with it.
“There are other ranchers in Arizona that will move their cattle completely out of Arizona to other states to be fed,” Smallhouse said.
Arizona is facing its 21st year of a long-term drought, according to the Arizona State Climate Office.
Several reservoirs, such as Lakes Mead and Powell, provide water supply to the state during dry years.
But with drought conditions continuing to get worse, water is getting harder to come by.
As a result, they’re having to decide if they’re going to plant in certain fields and what crops they can grow.
“That’s really what’s going to be a problem in this planting season for farmers.
“We have some relief now and again in the last few years.
We’ve had a couple of wet years, which is helpful,” she said.
“But in the long-term, I think ranchers and farmers are just trying to plan for the ups and downs.”

Critically low water in northwest Colorado forced the closure of one of the region’s most popular stretches of water to anglers.
Colorado Parks and Wildlife is closing the half-mile stretch of the Yampa River below Stagecoach Dam and the boundary of Stagecoach State Park.
"We are trying to be as proactive as possible to protect the outstanding catch and release trout fishery we have downstream of Stagecoach Reservoir," said Bill Atkinson, area aquatic biologist.
"This stretch of the river receives a tremendous amount of fishing pressure, especially in the spring when other resources might not be as accessible.
This emergency closure is an effort to protect the resource by giving the fish a bit of a reprieve when they are stressed like they are right now."
Citations will be issued to anyone fishing the stretch of water once it’s been closed.
Low water flows force fish to concentrate in residual pool habitat and become stressed as they compete for food.
Fish also become easier targets for anglers, an added stressor that can result in increased hooking mortality, the agency said.
It could take several years for fish populations to recover if the stretch is harmed by low flows, the agency said.
Should flows increase for a continuous period over the summer, authorities will reconsider the emergency fishing closure, said Lori Martin, senior aquatic biologist.