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Evidence shows that growing climatic variability has impacts on water availability and quality, which in turn jeopardizes social stability and jobs for the younger generations. This is particularly true in arid and semi-arid regions, where often migration is both the result of and a way to adapt to climate-induced environmental stresses. This paper makes the case that medium- to long-term strategies to mitigate social unrest, improve livelihoods of communities and individuals, and reinforce resilience to environmental stresses should include a special focus on improving water supply, access and governance.
According to a recent study (Mekonnen and Hoekstra, 2016), two-thirds of the global population (or 4 billion people) live under conditions of severe water scarcity at least one month per year, while another half a billion people face severe water scarcity year-round. The impacts of climate change, including water scarcity, are expected to lead to substantial employment cuts across the global economy, impacting in particular heavily water-dependent jobs – 95% of which are estimated to be agricultural jobs (WWAP, 2016) – in arid and semi-arid areas highly affected by climate change, where populations with low adaptive capacity may be led to migrate. Migration can hence represent a response to the consequence of failed adaptation to environmental stress.
Trends of increasing water scarcity show that this will impact heavily-dependent water jobs, threatening its sustainability. The increase of ‘water-scarce’ countries will affect income-generating opportunities, in particular for the youth (WWAP, 2016).