EAST LANSING, Mich. – A Michigan State University scientist is leading a competitively funded NOAA research project to create a better system for predicting droughts, a type of climate extreme that causes billions of dollars in direct losses to the U.S. economy every year.
A three-month, completely automated drought outlook is being developed by MSU’s Lifeng Luo.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s current, three-month seasonal outlook relies partially on human observation and judgment and is released once a month.
"That’s not frequent enough, especially when you consider flash droughts, which develop very quickly," said Luo, associate professor in MSU’s Department of Geography, Environment and Spatial Sciences. "The forecast needs to be more frequent and reliable."
NOAA’s Research’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) Program, in partnership with the National Integrated Drought Information System, is supporting the effort with $293,796 grant that runs through June 2020.
As part of the project, the researchers will participate in NOAA’s MAPP Drought Task Force, working with other MAPP-funded scientists on related projects.
On average, droughts cost an estimated $9 billion in damages every year in the United States, according to NOAA.
"This project will help advance the drought-prediction system and outlooks by NOAA," Luo said.