ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. — Drought conditions in much of the southwestern United States have improved because of surges of moisture over the last few months.
But national forecasters and climate experts warned Thursday that it hasn’t been enough to alleviate concerns about long-term water supplies around the region.
Officials with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center and others provided a briefing on the current conditions in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah as parts of California and the Pacific Northwest were blasted by another round of snow and rain.
The situation further inland has been less extreme, but the extra precipitation in southwestern Arizona has spurred some concerns that the upcoming harvest season could be interrupted.
Overall, maps depicting drought and precipitation over the last four months indicate a turn-around for a region that has been grappling with dry conditions for the better part of four years, Arizona state climatologist Nancy Selover said.
"Snowpack is not a guarantee of what your available water supplies will be," said Becky Bolinger with the Colorado Climate Center.
Many reservoirs in the four states are starting off the year low.
Federal data show the Salt River system in Arizona is at about 50 percent capacity, while the largest reservoir in New Mexico has dipped into the single digits.
Water restrictions still remain in place in northwestern New Mexico’s San Juan County.
Dust from White Sands National Monument in the south is being carried by the wind to Texas, more than 200 miles away.

Under Arizona’s plan for coping with drought, farmers who’ve received Colorado River water from the Central Arizona Project Canal for more than three decades now expect to see their allotment slashed more than 60 percent, from 275,000 acre-feet to 105,000 acre-feet per year for the first three years of a shortage.
After that, their supply of Colorado River water will be cut off and they plan to rely solely on pumping groundwater from wells.
“We’re going to have to lay off employees.” Thelander, who is 63, has been farming in Pinal County since 1995.
Mark Henle/The Republic Farmers in Pinal County have known for years that their supply of Colorado River water was temporary.
There is no way around it,” Thelander said.
I can tell you that,” Thelander said.
The Arizona Municipal Water Users Association, which represents cities that supply water to more than half the state’s population, said in a Jan. 7 economic analysis that Pinal County agriculture represented about 0.2 percent of Arizona’s economy in 2016, and that about 11 percent of the county’s agriculture industry is at risk due to the water cutbacks under the Drought Contingency Plan.
“So, we are sure that we will keep that in production as long as we can.” How Pinal got Colorado River water In the 1930s, growers in Pinal County dug wells and began irrigating farms with groundwater.
This year, the district plans to deliver 43 percent of its water from the CAP canal and get the remaining 57 percent from groundwater pumping.
“We don’t want it to be a shot in the dark.” Leaving fields dry Standing on the edge of a cotton field, Thelander watched a tractor roll toward him.

During that hearing, before the House Natural Resources committee, the lobbying machine of Pinal County agriculture — and the support of sympathetic lawmakers — was on full display.
In addition to new funds that were proposed Tuesday, they have secured, in the past month, $5 million from the Central Arizona Project and $5 million from the state to help pay for groundwater infrastructure.
That bill would create a fund for farmers in Pinal County to develop groundwater pumping infrastructure.
Arizona’s drought planning, Bahr said, had come down to a "last-minute effort to appease a few interests."
If farmers have to fallow their fields, “does it have a ripple effect throughout the state?” Cook, who owns a ranch and whose district contains portions of Pinal County, asked Chelsea McGuire, the director of government relations for the Arizona Farm Bureau.
"We all know that a lot of these farms are owned by developers already,” Engel said.
Betcher dodged the question, saying that agriculture was going to stay in Pinal County for the long term, and it would be using that groundwater infrastructure.
At Shedd’s farm, the canal of the Central Arizona Project cuts west-east across the fields, where they grow 600 acres of durum wheat, most of which goes to Italy, and upland cotton, most of which is exported to China, according to Shedd.
Of that, $1.95 million was for cotton, and just under $100,000 for wheat.
Shedd did not respond to a follow-up question about the subsidies.

KNAU’s Melissa Sevigny spoke about the plan with Arizona State University water policy expert Sarah Porter.
Yeah.
Writ large, the Drought Contingency Plan with the rules for saving water in Lake Mead and the schedule of cuts, that’s been agreed upon in principal by the Basin States and Mexico.
But how Arizona would share the cuts that Arizona would take is what has been the subject of a lot of negotiation this summer and fall.
To be specific, Arizona has a lot of different Colorado River users… it’s really the central Arizona and southern Arizona—the CAP customers—that have junior priority.
What’s happening with negotiations between users in cities, farms, tribes: why is this so difficult for Arizona to work out?
It’s very hard for large water users to go without water.
That’s, from their perspective, not desirable at all.
We have a lot of freshman legislators, who may have not had much contact with water policy, so we’re asking a lot of our lawmakers.
Technically what happens the Bureau will give the states 30 days to submit their suggestions about how to handle Lake Mead, and water deliveries, and then it would be up to the Bureau of Reclamation to decide how to proceed.

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Lawmakers also approved a series of measures to help Pinal County farmers deal with the water shortages they will face as part of the agreement.
Under the proposal, farmers will fallow thousands of acres of land and give up their rights to Central Arizona Water.
Bahr believes allowing Pinal County farmers to use ground water will only create more problems.
Without a consensus plan, the federal agency has said it will make the rules.
The deadline requires only that the states sign off on the drought plan for the river that serves 40 million people in Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and California.
That’s because Arizona has the lowest priority rights to the river.
If Arizona’s proposal collapses and the federal government steps in, those states could put some of their plans in motion to meet their obligation to other states, water managers said.
Arizona must find a way to reduce its use of Colorado River water by up to 700,000 acre-feet — more than twice Nevada’s yearly allocation under the drought plan.

With a critical federal deadline just two days away, Arizona lawmakers have introduced legislation for a Drought Contingency Plan aimed at preventing the Colorado River from falling to catastrophically low levels.
Legislators in the House and Senate introduced joint resolutions Monday that would authorize Arizona to sign the interstate Drought Contingency Plan.
The Senate joint resolution must go through the Water and Agriculture Committee, while the House version has been assigned to the Natural Resources, Energy and Water Committee.
In December, Brenda Burman, the commissioner of the federal Bureau of Reclamation, gave the seven Colorado River basin states — Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming — until January 31 to agree on a joint Drought Contingency Plan.
If they do not, the federal government will step in and come up with its own plan to protect the Colorado River.
Arizona is the only state that has not signed off on the plan.
These changes would allow Arizona to implement a separate internal plan to distribute cutbacks among Arizona water users that are laid out in the interstate Drought Contingency Plan.
Technically, these bills do not have the same January 31 deadline as the legislation authorizing Arizona to sign off on a Drought Contingency Plan.
Drought negotiators have said they do not want to see legislation for Arizona’s internal plan to be left behind, even if the state signs off on the multistate plan.
If the federal government is allowed to dictate cutbacks to states’ supply of Colorado River water, Arizona will lose far more water than the 18 percent it currently stands to lose under a Drought Contingency Plan.

Arizona’s plan has broad support but it hasn’t been approved by the Legislature, a factor that has made the negotiations on the drought contingency plan more complex.
No other state required lawmakers to sign off.
“The delay increases the risk for us all.” The deadline requires only that the states sign off on the drought plan.
Arizona lawmakers want to see exactly how the plan will affect their constituents before they cast a vote, and tweaks to a handful of bills expected to be introduced will create more uncertainty.
His budget includes $30 million to protect the levels in Lake Mead and $5 million for groundwater infrastructure.
If Arizona’s plan collapses and the federal government steps in, those states could put in motion at least some of their own plan to meet their obligation to the lower basin states, water managers there said.
The Interior Department, the parent agency of the Bureau of Reclamation, is the water master of the river that serves 40 million people.
“The less time you give us, the more complicated this is going to get.” Arizona must find a way to reduce its use of Colorado River water by up to 700,000 acre-feet — more than twice Nevada’s yearly allocation under the drought plan.
The Metropolitan Water District, another major water user of Colorado River water in California, is pumping more water through its aqueducts to ensure the 500,000 acre-feet of water it has stored behind Lake Mead won’t be stranded if the reservoir levels fall drastically and Arizona isn’t on board with the drought plan, said the district’s general manager, Jeff Kightlinger.
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As the Colorado River teeters on the brink of shortage, water leaders in Arizona are begging developers to pressure legislators to sign off on a drought plan, while also aiming to reassure those developers that despite a drier future, it’s safe to come to Arizona and build.
Without a drought contingency plan, the federal government will step in and impose cuts far more severe than Arizona would face with one, Arizona leaders expect.
“People are starting to wonder,” she told Phoenix New Times after the event.
The idea that Arizona’s water future is secure, despite drought and shortages, is “the biggest economic message we can have out there,” Lombard said.
At Friday’s meeting, Buschatzke and Cooke tried to strike a balance.
They emphasized that a looming shortage on the Colorado River is dire, and real enough that developers should support the Drought Contingency Plan, but they also explained the plan as helping the state successfully transition to a drier future.
The Central Arizona Groundwater Replenishment District, an entity that is vital to developers by helping them meeting legal requirements to have sufficient groundwater, was in a good position right now, despite the drought on the Colorado River, Cooke said.
The reason the deal is only nearly closed, and not signed, sealed, and delivered, is because it is contingent upon the Drought Contingency Plan getting through the Legislature.
But unlike Buschatzke, Cooke did not beg developers to call their legislators and demand they pass the Drought Contingency Plan.
“There needs to be a good deal of trust.” Governor Stephen Roe Lewis of the Gila River Indian Community stepped up, reiterating the message that the Drought Contingency Plan was Arizona’s best bet for a secure water future — and with it, future growth.

Warren Tenney, executive director of the Arizona Municipal Water Users Association said he believes the plan, delivered to lawmakers this week and awaiting legislative action, has been more than generous to the farmers.
It includes a promise of 105,000 acre feet of Colorado River water for the next three years, 70,000 acre feet of groundwater for four years after that.
The draft legislation also includes $5 million in state cash to drill wells and construct delivery systems for that water.
And they want the state to be the backstop if the federal government does not come through with additional cash for well construction for farmers to be able to get that groundwater, a figure that could approach $50 million.
It also has prepared its own report seeking to debunk — or at least minimize — a report commissioned by Pinal farmers about how not getting the water they need would have a major impact on the economy.
But the organization said this has to be put into perspective, saying that the agriculture and agribusiness in Pinal represented only about two-tenths of a percent of the state’s economy, half as much as does golf.
Dan Thelander said last year he grew 2,200 acres of alfalfa sold a local dairy for milk cows.
That, he said, is why that 105,000 acre feet of water should be guaranteed for at least three years plus the cash to build wells and pipelines for groundwater after that.
Those agreements, Tenney said, would give the farmers only about 70,000 to 80,000 acre feet of water a year,far less than the plan would provide for the next three years.
Orme said what the farmers demanded — that 105,000 acre feet annually of river water followed by 70,000 acre feet from groundwater — is based on what was available, on average, for the prior eight years, before the cities took their full allocation.

PHOENIX — House Democrats are balking at ratifying a proposed drought contingency plan over what they see as a key missing element.
Minority Leader Charlene Fernandez said Thursday many of her members question why there’s nothing in the proposal to require more water conservation.
Instead, it is more focused on finding ways to move water around, particularly to meet the needs of Pinal County farmers.
“But I do think it’s doable.
Conservation is something that’s important.” She also pointed out that the package lawmakers are being asked to approve involves more than changing state water laws.
There’s also money involved, with the state coming up with cash both to buy water from the Colorado River Indian Tribes as well as to help Pinal County farmers drill new wells to replace some river water they’ll lose.
“If we’re going to put money into this, and we’re talking about millions … and we could be on the hook for more, we need to get exactly what we want,” Fernandez said.
The last time Arizona and other states made projections was in 2007.
Using data for the past 100 years they figured the chance of Lake Mead hitting critical shortage by 2026 was less than 10 percent.
But here’s the thing: Once you look at more recent data only — specifically the last 30 years when the Southwest has been in an historic drought — continuing to withdraw water at this rate increases the chance of the lake falling to critical levels to more than 40 percent.