Authors: Nate Millington Topics: Cultural and Political Ecology, Urban Geography, Human-Environment Geography Keywords: Water, Urban Political Ecology, Scarcity, Brazil, Crisis, Climate Change, Environment, Urban Geography Session Type: Paper In 2014 and 2015, political intransigence combined with a severe drought to push São Paulo, Brazil, to the edge of a profound water crisis.
Three years later, in Cape Town, South Africa, a continued lack of rainfall has resulted in strict rationing and the development of emergency plans to prepare for the possibility of a citywide collapse in water stores.
As with other cities that have faced citywide water scarcity in recent years, Cape Town and São Paulo’s experiences of what have been called water crises are indicative of the difficulties of adapting existing hydrological regimes to new climatic realities.
This paper considers the relationship between water scarcity and scientific uncertainty around the effects of climate change through an analysis of how water crises were defined and responded to in São Paulo and Cape Town.
Both cities reveal the difficulties in adapting existing infrastructural systems and political configurations to new uncertain environmental dynamics, and both involve complex negotiations with climate science and the nature of scientific expertise more broadly.
I consider how scientific understandings of climate change were operationalized in particular ways by municipal and regional governments, and analyze how understandings of a shifting climate were incorporated into crisis response.
By focusing on the notion of crisis, I call attention to the political ecologies of water management in the two cities, and contribute to understandings of how the fixed infrastructures of the contemporary city intersect with scientific uncertainty and increasing climatic irregularity.

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Evidence shows that growing climatic variability has impacts on water availability and quality, which in turn jeopardizes social stability and jobs for the younger generations. This is particularly true in arid and semi-arid regions, where often migration is both the result of and a way to adapt to climate-induced environmental stresses. This paper makes the case that medium- to long-term strategies to mitigate social unrest, improve livelihoods of communities and individuals, and reinforce resilience to environmental stresses should include a special focus on improving water supply, access and governance.
According to a recent study (Mekonnen and Hoekstra, 2016), two-thirds of the global population (or 4 billion people) live under conditions of severe water scarcity at least one month per year, while another half a billion people face severe water scarcity year-round. The impacts of climate change, including water scarcity, are expected to lead to substantial employment cuts across the global economy, impacting in particular heavily water-dependent jobs – 95% of which are estimated to be agricultural jobs (WWAP, 2016) – in arid and semi-arid areas highly affected by climate change, where populations with low adaptive capacity may be led to migrate. Migration can hence represent a response to the consequence of failed adaptation to environmental stress.
Trends of increasing water scarcity show that this will impact heavily-dependent water jobs, threatening its sustainability. The increase of ‘water-scarce’ countries will affect income-generating opportunities, in particular for the youth (WWAP, 2016).

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*Surveillance and reporting of all cases of cholera.
Shanchol provides longer-term protection against both Vibrio cholerae O1 and O139 in children aged less than five years.
A relatively new vaccine — internationally licensed by the WHO in 2011 — is in short supply, with roughly two million doses kept in a WHO stockpile.
“The risk is probably relatively high,” Legros said.The WHO estimates there are 2.9 million cases and 95,000 deaths globally each year, far more than officially reported.
A new review of the research literature led by researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, US, shows that cholera vaccines provide substantial protection for adults but provide significantly less protection for children under age five, a population particularly at risk for dying from this diarrheal disease.
The review, which considered seven clinical trials and six observational studies, found that the standard two-dose vaccine regimen reduced the risk of getting cholera on average by 58 percent for adults but only by 30 percent for children under age five.The findings appear online in the journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases.
There is growing evidence that climate change is altering the distribution of some diseases, in some cases causing epidemics or making diseases spread within their natural range, for example, Zika virus in South America, or bluetongue and Schmallenberg disease in livestock in Europe.Diseases spread by insects and ticks (vector-borne diseases) were found to be the most climate sensitive, followed by those transmitted in soil, water and food.

Pakistan could be facing a severe drought soon according to country experts, who have warned that the country will approach “absolute scarcity” levels of water by 2025.
Pakistan has the world’s fourth highest rate of water use but is largely dependent on water from the Indus River basin.
An estimated million people live in Karachi but very few have running water after the land has gradually dried up, forcing locals in some areas to queue for hours for supplies to be given to them.
“Because of this absentee landlordism, water has become the property of the landlords and the poor are deprived of their share.” Experts say that population growth and urbanisation are the main reasons behind the crisis while some believe that the issue has been exacerbated by climate change and poor water management.
According to Irfan Choudhry, energy sector expert, the authorities appear to lack the political will to tackle the problem.
Water crisis may soon hit major Pakistan cities “There are no proper water storage facilities in the country.
Pakistan hasn’t built new dams since the 1960s.
The authorities need to act now.
We can store water for only 30 days, and it is worrisome,” he said.
With only 494mm of precipitation per year, Pakistan is already one of the wettest countries in the world, according to the World Bank.

University of New Mexico Director of Water Resources John Fleck said it’s good news short-term, but the reprieve is mostly due to a generous monsoon season and may not last.
"It’s a lot warmer, and so for a given amount of rain and snow that falls, less of that ends up in the river,” Fleck explained.
As far as adapting to climate change, Albuquerque has grown by 120,000 residents in the last 20 years, but consumes less water now than in 1985.
But that is twice what it was at this time last year.
Fleck said one unexpected consequence of the drought was greater attention to water conservation by New Mexico residents and farmers.
"It’s not all doom and gloom,” he said.
"People have done well in New Mexico at adapting to drought and climate change over the last 15 years.
So we’ve shown good adaptive capacity and resilience to respond to the changes that we’re seeing."
Since the 1990s, more than 60 million acres of forest have suffered die-offs.
Roz Brown, Public News Service – NM

Fires, droughts and hurricanes: What’s the link between climate change and natural disasters?.
To what extent does climate change influence them?
Here are a few ways researchers think that climate change’s effects could play out.
Hurricanes SEA LEVEL RISE AND STORM SURGE: As sea levels continue to rise due to global warming, they’re increasing the risk of storm surge — the dangerously high floods caused by a storm pushing water onshore.
For hurricanes, that can be really dangerous, given the deaths and damage caused by rain and storm-surge flooding, Emanuel said.
This potentially helps increase drought conditions, said Lai-yung Ruby Leung, a climate modeler at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.
READY TO BLOW: Where there’s drought, there’s often fire, and for similar reasons — global warming means less soil moisture on average, which means that stuff burns more easily.
MOVING UP THE MOUNTAIN: As the average global temperature continues to rise, cold-loving trees like pines and spruces may need higher elevations to stay at the cooler temperatures they’re adapted to survive in.
Final note As a rule, climate scientists are generally loathe to say that any particular fire, flood, drought or hurricane was caused by climate change — but they can point to the general likelihood that such extreme events might occur, or the complex ways in which they’re influenced, by climate change.
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Seuss’ trees.
Where the Sonoran and Mojave deserts meet in California, you’ll find Joshua Tree National Park, home to giant tree-like succulents with green tufts on their branches.
The iconic Joshua tree has thrived in this location since the last ice age, but global warming and other stressors are shrinking its habitat.
Mature Joshua trees have a wide, shallow root network and need just one big rainfall every couple of years to survive.
So they struggle to survive during droughts which are becoming longer and more frequent with climate change.
Cameron Barrows of the University of California-Riverside says that by the end of the century, the Joshua tree population could shrink to just one tenth of its current size.
With fewer new trees growing to maturity because of drought, iconic Joshua trees are disappearing.
Click To Tweet Barrows: “So that’s the bad news.
The good news is at the higher elevations, and areas that tend to get a little bit higher rainfall, they are reproducing just fine.” Barrows says protecting these areas from other stresses like fire or invasive species is our best chance for protecting the Joshua tree for future generations.
Reporting credit: Justyna Bicz/ChavoBart Digital Media.

Increasing drought in Jordan: Climate change and cascading Syrian land-use impacts on reducing transboundary flow.
As a case in point, we analyze Jordan’s surface water resources and agricultural water demand through 2100, considering the combined impacts of climate change and land-use change driven by the Syrian conflict.
Comparing the baseline period to 2070–2100, average temperature increases by 4.5°C, rainfall decreases by 30%, and multiple drought-type occurrences increase from ~8 in 30 years to ~25 in 30 years.
Watershed simulations of future transboundary Yarmouk-Jordan River flow from Syria show that Jordan would receive 51 to 75% less Yarmouk water compared to historical flow.
Recovery of Syrian irrigated agriculture to pre-conflict conditions would produce twice the decline in transboundary flow as that due to climate change.
In Jordan, the confluence of limited water supply, future drought, and transboundary hydrologic impacts of land use severely challenges achieving freshwater sustainability.
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No claim to original U.S. Government Works.
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MEDFORD/SOMERVILLE (August 15, 2017) – Harmful algal blooms known to pose risks to human and environmental health in large freshwater reservoirs and lakes are projected to increase because of climate change, according to a team of researchers led by a Tufts University scientist.
The team developed a modeling framework that predicts that the largest increase in cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CyanoHABs) would occur in the Northeast region of the United States, but the biggest economic harm would be felt by recreation areas in the Southeast.
The research, which is published in print today in the journal Environmental Science & Technology, is part of larger, ongoing efforts among scientists to quantify and monetize the degree to which climate change will impact and damage various U.S. sectors.
"Our study shows that higher water temperature, changes in rainfall, and increased nutrient inputs will combine to cause more frequent occurrence of harmful algal blooms in the future," he added.
Throughout their 3.5 billion-year-old evolutionary history, these organisms have proven resilient and adaptable to a wide range of climates.
It is among the few studies to combine climate projections with a hydrologic/water quality network model of U.S. lakes and reservoirs.
Finally, these water flows and reservoir states are entered into a water quality model to simulate a number of water quality characteristics, including cyanobacteria concentrations, in each of the nation’s waterbodies.
The end result is a framework that can predict the combined impact of climate, population growth, and other factors on future water quality for different U.S. regions.
The research was supported by the U.S. EPA and the U.S. National Science Foundation, and access to the reservoir datasets from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
Environmental Science & Technology.

Could Climate Change Solutions Also Help Drought Conditions?.
— Montana is suffering from wildfires and possibly the worst drought in 30 years, bringing lots of pain to farmers and ranchers.
Brant Quick, a farmer and rancher near Circle, said people in the area are turning to costly solutions such as trucking in hay.
A study by Climate Central found Montana has seen a greater increase in large fires than any other state in the last 45 years.
According to States at Risk, a project that assesses the effect of climate change on each state, Montana faces one of the highest threats from drought over the next three decades.
"It sure seems like climate change is playing a big part, because it just doesn’t seem like these are the normal weather patterns and stuff,” Fix said.
But he said even if humans aren’t the leading cause, we shouldn’t be making the effects worse.
That’s why he’s become an advocate of using cover crops to sequester carbon in the soil.
Quick said the method has a number of benefits, including capturing carbon before it enters the atmosphere, decreasing the ground temperature during situations such as the current drought, and more.
"It also lowers your need for inputs of artificial fertilizers and also will help break up insects and other pest cycles and that type of thing,” he said.