ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. — Drought conditions in much of the southwestern United States have improved because of surges of moisture over the last few months.
Officials with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center and others provided a briefing on the current conditions in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah as parts of California and the Pacific Northwest were blasted by another round of snow and rain.
The situation further inland has been less extreme, but the extra precipitation in southwestern Arizona has spurred some concerns that the upcoming harvest season could be interrupted.
“Snowpack is not a guarantee of what your available water supplies will be,” said Becky Bolinger with the Colorado Climate Center.
Many reservoirs in the four states are starting off the year low.
Federal data show the Salt River system in Arizona is at about 50 percent capacity, while the largest reservoir in New Mexico has dipped into the single digits.
Water restrictions still remain in place in northwestern New Mexico’s San Juan County.
Dust from White Sands National Monument in the south is being carried by the wind to Texas, more than 200 miles away.
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ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. — Drought conditions in much of the southwestern United States have improved because of surges of moisture over the last few months.
But national forecasters and climate experts warned Thursday that it hasn’t been enough to alleviate concerns about long-term water supplies around the region.
Officials with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center and others provided a briefing on the current conditions in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah as parts of California and the Pacific Northwest were blasted by another round of snow and rain.
The situation further inland has been less extreme, but the extra precipitation in southwestern Arizona has spurred some concerns that the upcoming harvest season could be interrupted.
Overall, maps depicting drought and precipitation over the last four months indicate a turn-around for a region that has been grappling with dry conditions for the better part of four years, Arizona state climatologist Nancy Selover said.
"Snowpack is not a guarantee of what your available water supplies will be," said Becky Bolinger with the Colorado Climate Center.
Many reservoirs in the four states are starting off the year low.
Federal data show the Salt River system in Arizona is at about 50 percent capacity, while the largest reservoir in New Mexico has dipped into the single digits.
Water restrictions still remain in place in northwestern New Mexico’s San Juan County.
Dust from White Sands National Monument in the south is being carried by the wind to Texas, more than 200 miles away.

Additional rain expected early next week will provide additional help with the drought conditions.
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http://WWW.EMC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MMB/NLDAS/DROUGHT
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Climatologists said Wednesday that conditions are right for an El Nino weather pattern to develop that could bring wetter-than-normal conditions this winter in drought-stricken areas of the southwestern U.S.
"I would say, flip a coin."
Parts of the Southwest, particularly the Four Corners region of Colorado, Utah, New Mexico and Arizona, are experiencing extreme to exceptional drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
There is a 70-75 percent chance for development this winter of El Nino, the natural warming of parts of the central Pacific Ocean that influences weather worldwide, said Gerry Bell, research meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center.
El Nino-produced rainfall could relieve parched conditions in many parts of the drought-stricken Southwest but how much relief the region experiences depends upon the strength of the tropical ocean phenomenon, he said.
"El Nino is not a guarantee," he said.
Simeral said the Four Corners region is in the midst of the driest September-October period on record.
The region has experienced the warmest 12-month period on record in 123 years of record-keeping.
Snowpacks in parts of Arizona and Colorado that could provide much-needed moisture during warm, dry periods are unusually low.
Copyright 2018 Associated Press.

The winter outlook in Western Washington continues to show higher-than-normal chances of warmer, with the possibility of drier conditions.
In the winter, a typical El Nino can lead to wetter-than-average rain in the south and drier and warmer conditions in the north.
"Although a weak El Nino is expected, it may still influence the winter season by bringing wetter conditions across the southern United States, and warmer, drier conditions to parts of the North," Halpert said.
There’s as much as a 75 percent higher chance that our winter will be warmer than normal in Western Washington.
There are equal chances for either a wetter, or drier winter.
NOAA says drought conditions are likely to persist, including some areas of the Pacific Northwest.
David Miskus with NOAA says the worst drought conditions in the Pacific Northwest are in Oregon and Southwest Washington.
Drought improvements for areas from the Cascades and areas west to the coast are expected.
It’s less clear for Eastern Washington, but conditions aren’t as sever there as they are in Oregon, which are expected to improve in the coming months.
This means that while it may be an El Nino winter, we will still see periods of cold temperatures and snowfall.

The Climate Prediction Center issued its latest three-month weather outlook Thursday.
The CPC rates nearly all of the United States, North Dakota included, as having a better than average chance of experiencing a warmer than normal winter.
El Nino update The CPC continues its issuance of an El Nino Watch, saying there is a 50-55 percent chance of El Nino conditions influencing our weather through November and a 65-70 percent chance of El Nino influence beginning as early as December and continuing well into 2019.
This history of El Nino events, a warming of Pacific Ocean temperatures, is that winter temperatures in North Dakota are generally above average and snowfall below average.
Currently, says the CPC, El Nino indicators remain somewhat neutral, “a blend of slightly above-and-below average sea surface temperatures.” However, adds the CPC, a majority of forecast models favor El Nino formation later this fall albeit most likely a weak El Nino.
Nevertheless, El Nino conditions of any degree should deter the number of colder than normal days in the coming months.
A large section of the state, including Ward, Renville and Bottineau Counties is considered to be severe drought.
“Drought conditions continued in northwestern North Dakota, where precipitation over the past two months has been less than 30 percent of normal,” says the CPC.
The CPC noted that Hettinger County in southwestern North Dakota has received just 20 percent of normal precipitation over the past 60 days.
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Hotter-than-normal temperatures and persistent dry conditions led to an uptick in moderate to severe drought across eastern Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and eastern Oklahoma, according to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported that 30% of continental U.S. (CONUS) and 66.4 million people are now being impacted by moderate drought or worse.
Extreme (D3) and Exceptional (D4) drought are affecting substantial areas of western Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, Texas, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico and southern California.
Severe (D2) drought is present in eastern Oregon, southern California, Kansas, Utah, Texas, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, northern Missouri, southern Iowa, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, North Dakota and South Dakota.
Temperatures since October across the region have been well above normal: either top 10% or warmest on record since 1895.
Most of the region has received well-below-normal precipitation and some areas have been the driest on record since 1895.
He said beef cow slaughter in Region 6 is 10.4% higher than last year during the same period (through early June), with 14% more cows slaughtered since early April than in 2017.
Region 7, which includes both relatively dry Missouri and Kansas as well as Iowa and Nebraska, where timely rains have fallen, has seen beef cow slaughter up 6.7% year to date, and 8.8% in recent weeks, Brown noted.
“While it is still not clear whether the early spring cold temperatures and subsequent dry weather in portions of the country will be enough to result in a shrinking beef cow herd for the year, it is certain that poor pasture quality is taking a toll on many producers,” Brown said.
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The USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service has released its June Water Supply Outlook Report, which predicts water shortages across much of Oregon this summer.
Most snow monitoring sites melted out 1 to 2 weeks earlier than normal.
Snow at several of these locations melted out at rates that were up to twice as fast as usual for snowmelt in May.
Many of Oregon’s major irrigation reservoirs are storing near average amounts of water as of the end of May, but several have begun to dip below average.
The Umatilla, Walla Walla, and Willow basins are storing the most water with capacity at 95-111 percent of average.
Elsewhere, most of the state’s major reservoirs range from 70-110 percent of average.
Drought intensifies NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is calling for a warmer and drier than normal summer and the Drought Monitor recently added a severe drought designation for parts of central and southeastern Oregon.
Wildfire danger Fire officials along the Oregon Coast and across the state are warning of intensive wildfire danger due to the dry conditions and less water.
North Lincoln Fire & Rescue District officials are urging beachgoers to be extremely careful with warming fires and make sure they are dead out before leaving the beach.
Each spring and summer NLFR crews are called to Lincoln City beaches to put out wildfires that officials say are human-caused.

The January 2018 Phoenix weather statistics by themselves aren’t particularly remarkable, but a look at the bigger picture will get your attention. January 2018 was the third warmest ever for Phoenix when you look at the average temperature of 61.2 degrees. Average daily temperature is determined by adding the daily highs and lows and dividing by two. And it was the 34th driest month for the city with just 0.21 inch of rain recorded at Sky Harbor Airport, according to the National Weather Service in Phoenix. When you consider that 2017 was the warmest year ever for Phoenix and the city had only 4.96 inches of rain (8.03 is normal), the January 2018 numbers take on additional significance. The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center calls for a 50 percent probability of above-normal temperatures and a 40-percent probability (50 percent in the southeastern corner of the state) of below-normal rain and snowfall for the next three months, so it’s easy to see why there could be cause for concern. Moderate to severe drought across Arizona The most recent map for Arizona from the U.S. Drought Monitor shows that the entire state is experiencing…

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