Drought worsens in Bismarck, Mandan areas.
Nearly 8 percent of the state, including Bismarck and Mandan, is seeing worsening conditions as the U.S. Drought Monitor’s rating of the area moved today from severe to extreme drought.
On Wednesday, the North Dakota Farmers Union urged U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue to open Conservation Reserve Program acres for emergency haying and grazing due to widespread drought.
“Feed supplies are deteriorating fast, hay is in short supply due to last year’s harsh winter, and ranchers are facing the difficult decision of whether to downsize their herd.
It is an emergency situation.” The United States Drought Monitor places all of North Dakota in at least abnormally dry conditions.
Parts of Southwest North Dakota also are experiencing extreme drought conditions along with portions of Divide and Williams counties in the northwest corner of the state.
On Saturday, Bismarck received .4 inches of rain, according to Weather Underground records.
“It’s going to be cool and breezy this weekend … borderline unpleasant to those accustomed to the hot weather we typically see this time of the year," he said.
“This roundtable is an opportunity for producers, ag groups and agencies to discuss the current drought situation in North Dakota and the options available to producers,” Goehring said.
“Topics will include the status of the drought, forage quality and livestock management strategies, crop insurance forage options and the Farm Service Agency process to access Conservation Reserve Program acres for emergency haying and grazing.” Kevin Sedivic, rangeland specialist for North Dakota State University Extension Carl Dahlen, animal scientist for NDSU Extension Shad Weber, senior risk management specialist for the United States Department of Agriculture Brad Olson, manager of the North Dakota Farm Service Agency Conservation Program

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued the U.S. Winter Outlook today, saying that La Nina is expected to influence winter conditions this year.
La Nina favors drier, warmer winters in the southern U.S and wetter, cooler conditions in the northern U.S.
"This climate outlook provides the most likely outcome for the upcoming winter season, but it also provides the public with a good reminder that winter is just up ahead and it’s a good time to prepare for typical winter hazards, such as extreme cold and snowstorms," said Mike Halpert, deputy director, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
"Regardless of the outlook, there is always some chance for extreme winter weather, so prepare now for what might come later this winter."
Other factors that often play a role in the winter weather include the Arctic Oscillation, which influences the number of arctic air masses that penetrate into the South and create nor’easters on the East Coast, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which can affect the number of heavy rain events in the Pacific Northwest.
The 2016 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February): Precipitation Wetter than normal conditions are most likely in the northern Rockies, around the Great Lakes, in Hawaii and in western Alaska Drier than normal conditions are most likely across the entire southern U.S. and southern Alaska.
Temperature Warmer than normal conditions are most likely across the southern U.S., extending northward through the central Rockies, in Hawaii, in western and northern Alaska and in northern New England.
Cooler conditions are most likely across the northern tier from Montana to western Michigan.
Drought improvement is anticipated in northern California, the northern Rockies, the northern Plains and parts of the Ohio Valley.
Snow forecasts are dependent upon the strength and track of winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.

SCIENCE NEWS: Collaboration in a time of crisis: NOAA responds to Oroville Dam emergency; Back to the bones of the Delta; Satellites reveal bird habitat loss in California; Asian dust providing key nutrients for California’s sequoias; and more ….
In science news this week: Collaboration in a time of crisis: NOAA responds to Oroville Dam emergency; Fish and money: Consequences of the Oroville Dam emergency; Back to the bones of the Delta; Going local buys future for Bayshore; March issue of Estuary News now available; Satellites reveal bird habitat loss in California; PNAS Journal club: In some cases, water management practices exacerbated California drought, according to model; Asian dust providing key nutrients for California’s sequoias; Disappearing beaches: Modeling shoreline change in Southern California; Where states rank on Colorado River water rights transfers; NOAA publishes agency-wide framework to optimize and accelerate modeling; Chance find has big implications for water treatment’s cost and carbon footprint; Another study points to climate change’s direct role in fueling extreme weather; and Winter outlook 2017: So how did the Climate Prediction Center do?
The teamwork and coordinated response on behalf of the public and the resources were impressive, and we were proud to be a part of it.” … ” Read more from NOAA here: Collaboration in a time of crisis: NOAA responds to Oroville Dam emergency SEE ALSO: NOAA’s data story on the Oroville Dam Fish and money: Consequences of the Oroville Dam emergency: “The Oroville Dam made headlines this winter when Lake Oroville overflowed onto its emergency spillway for the first time in its history, raising safety concerns and prompting the evacuation of almost all residents of Oroville and some communities further down the Feather River.
The dam, constructed on the Feather River from 1962–1968 as part of the California State Water Project, is the tallest in the United States at 770 feet.
… ” Continue reading at ESTUARY News here: Going local buys future for Bayshore March issue of Estuary News now available: “This issue of ESTUARY News magazine debuts a new guide to how to repair and renew the Delta and examines stresses on Delta species, especially pesticides.
In it, the authors make one of the first attempts to quantify the effect that human water management has on the frequency and intensity of surface water drought in California–and in some cases, they found, management practices exacerbated drought conditions.
… ” Read more from the PNAS here: Journal club: In some cases, water management practices exacerbated California drought, according to model Asian dust providing key nutrients for California’s sequoias: “Dust from as far away as the Gobi Desert in Asia is providing more nutrients than previously thought for plants, including giant sequoias, in California’s Sierra Nevada mountains, a team of scientists, including several from the University of California, Riverside, have found.
… ” Read more from PhysOrg here: Where states rank on Colorado River water rights transfers NOAA publishes agency-wide framework to optimize and accelerate modeling: “A new report describes high-priority recommendations to improve the way NOAA develops and operates models.
The first, obviously, is the actual post on the winter outlook describing what exactly we, at the Climate Prediction Center, were thinking when it came to temperature and precipitation for winter.
About Science News and Reports: This weekly feature, posted every Thursday, is a collection of the latest scientific research and reports with a focus on relevant issues to the Delta and to California water, although other issues such as climate change are sometimes included.

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center added Franklin County to the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook. With higher than normal temperatures and little moisture recharging the top and subsoil layers, Franklin County is likely to have drought conditions for the month of March. Everyone has noticed the recent up-and-down temperature swings. While some have loved the warmer weather, it can have drastic effects on agriculture in the county. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) is predicting a 33 percent probability of above-normal temperature for the month of March. Farmers rely on a number of factors to have good quality, high yielding crops and lush pastures. Weather can affect everything that goes on in a farm, which can affect the product to the consumer. Wild fires from drought conditions across Kansas, Texas, and Oklahoma has disseminated cattle ranches, burning thousands of square acres, killing thousands of livestock and six people. The lack of moisture from drought conditions in our area can bring the threat…

Another Drought?
Three months ago, the same map showed a large swath of the middle part of the state was clear of drought.
The good news is Oklahoma is heading into its rainy part of the year, said Gary McManus, state climatologist for the Oklahoma Mesonet.
The less good news is it is difficult to predict just how much moisture might be on the way.
“We’ve sort of set the stage if we don’t get normal to above normal rainfall, we could end up being in a bit of trouble, especially with the predictions from the Climate Prediction Center of warmer-than-normal weather over the next few months, at least increased odds of above-normal temperatures come into play.” Above-normal temperatures open the door to intensifying drought conditions, which means if that prediction proves accurate, Oklahoma will need even more rainfall.
A National Weather Service Fact Sheet describes drought as a deficiency in precipitation over an extended period of time, usually a season or more.
You’re already starting to see the impacts before you’re getting the notifications that something going on,” McManus said.
Do we need watering restrictions in place earlier?
If drought does visit the state once again, no worries.
“It’s things like that with everybody working together that helps conserve water.” For more information about drought and strategies and tips for managing this weather hazard, contact the county Extension office, visit the Oklahoma Mesonet (www.mesonet.org), check Oklahoma Water Resources Center at Oklahoma State University (www.water.okstate.edu) and connect with the National Weather Service (www.weather.gov).