Extreme weather behind Prince Rupert boil water advisory

PRINCE RUPERT — Extreme weather is being blamed for a boil water advisory affecting 12-thousand residents in the coastal community of Prince Rupert, BC.
The city says unacceptable levels of the parasites cryptosporidium and giardia have been detected in water samples, and seniors, children and people with compromised immune systems are at higher risk of infection.
Residents are directed to boil water continuously for one minute prior to drinking it and the city says home water filtration systems are not considered effective in restoring water quality in this instance.
It says this year’s dry summer followed by a storm surge pushed debris into the water supply, making it undrinkable.
(The Canadian Press)

Research: Heatwaves, droughts and floods among recent weather extremes linked to climate change

by the Climate Centre at COP 24 in Katowice New research published on Monday, as the second week of UN climate talks in Poland got underway, shows “clear ties between today’s extremes and human causes” in both the developed and developing world.
The report – Explaining Extreme Events in 2017 from a Climate Perspective – is the seventh in an annual series that began in 2011.
“These attribution studies are telling us that a warming Earth is continuing to send us new and more extreme weather events every year,” said BAMS Editor Jeff Rosenfeld.
‘In a decade the research has evolved enough to address a wider scope of societal challenges’ This is the second year that scientists have identified extreme weather they say could not have happened without warming.
“Scientific evidence supports increasing confidence that human activity is driving a variety of extreme events now,” he added.
“These are having large economic impacts across the United States and around the world.” ‘Local risks’ The extreme-weather events studied in the seven issues of the report to date do not represent a comprehensive analysis of all events during that span, BAMS said.
About 70 per cent of the 146 research findings published in the series identified a substantial link between an extreme event and climate change; 30 per cent did not.
Researchers are “often going after more local risks like heatwaves, fire danger, and floods on scales of a few days, for pinpoint areas of extreme impacts,” Rosenfeld added.
“In barely a decade, the research focus has evolved enough to address a wider scope of societal challenges.” Coastal waters The research on 2017 includes findings that very warm seas off the coast of Africa that “could not have occurred in a pre-industrial climate” doubled the probability of drought in East Africa, which left more than 6 million people in Somalia facing food shortages.
Climate change made heatwaves in the European Mediterranean region at least as hot as last year’s three times more likely than in 1950, it says, while the record-breaking 2017 heat in China, once rare, is now a one-in-five-year event due to climate change.

Extreme heat and drought could cause summer blackouts, energy market operator says

Extreme weather over summer could reduce the output of coal, gas and hydro power generators and cause problems with the reliability of electricity supply, according to the Australian Energy Market Operator.
Energy minister declares Snowy Hydro expansion ‘fundamental’ to Australia Read more Aemo will on Friday release advice about its summer readiness plan for 2018.
It says the weather bureau is predicting warmer-than-average temperatures in the coming months, with heatwaves of shorter duration in the south but longer duration in the northern regions.
“Extreme temperatures and events including bushfires, lightning and storms can reduce the output of thermal, solar and wind generation, impact transmission lines and result in loss of supply.
Part of the response will include demand management, with 132MW of reserves available to support reliability in Victoria.
The costs of contracting the additional supply are passed through to energy consumers.
Clean energy is cheap, surging – and headed for a fall Read more Aemo’s chief executive, Audrey Zibelman, says the new supply “will alleviate the short-term risk of involuntary load shedding during summer peak periods” but says integration will be important to ensure ongoing reliability and stability of Australia’s power system throughout the year.
The assessment notes that the high uptake of rooftop solar is pushing back peak demand to later in the evening because power consumers are generating more of their own supply during the day.
Zibelman said she was confident Aemo had put in place the necessary procedures to minimise the risks over the coming summer.
“Aemo is confident the plans we have made and the targeted actions we have taken in collaboration with the wider energy industry and governments, have appropriately equipped us to tackle any unforeseeable events the upcoming summer might bring,” she said.

Study predicts more extreme weather like 2011 Texas drought, thanks to global warming

Play Video Play Loaded: 0% Progress: 0% Remaining Time -0:00 This is a modal window.
Foreground — White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan — Opaque Semi-Opaque Background — White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan — Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window — White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan — Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Default Monospace Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Sans-Serif Casual Script Small Caps Defaults Done Extreme weather such as floods, droughts and heat waves are likely to become more frequent in coming years because of global warming, according to a new study.
Human-caused global warming will be associated with more extreme jet stream patterns, which will lead to more extreme weather, says a study published in Science Advances and released this week.
QRA is short for quasi-resonant amplification, which refers to extreme and unusual jet stream patterns.
The study mentions examples such as the 2003 European heat wave, the 2010 Pakistan flood and Russian heat waves, and the 2011 Texas and Oklahoma heat wave and drought.
Texas had its driest year on record in 2011, according to the National Weather Service.
The lack of rain that year put more than 97 percent of the Lone State State in a severe drought condition, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
A briefing for the Texas Legislature by the Office of the State Climatologist reported that the 2011 drought was “susceptibility due to global ocean temperature patterns.” The report added that while global weather patterns “tend to reverse themselves over time” in the future “the safest bet is that global temperatures will continue to increase, causing Texas droughts to be warmer and more strongly affected by evaporation.” These extreme weather events are likely to increase “under business-as-usual burning of fossil fuels, keeping in mind our assumption that the historically defined fingerprint remains valid in the future climate,” the study said.
But that figure varies among model simulations and could increase by even more, “roughly tripling” the number of events.
Although so much consistent rainfall can be concerning, National Weather Service meteorologist Lee Carlaw said it’s difficult to definitively connect two consecutive months of record-setting rain to something such as climate change.

Frost, drought hit wine production hard in Europe

BRUSSELS — Hail, frost and droughts have hit Europe’s grape harvest hard, making it the smallest in 36 years.
The European Union’s Copa-Cogeca farm union said Tuesday that the extreme weather means the harvest is expected to be down 14 percent, with some areas seeing a drop of as much as one third. That will cut wine production to a level not seen since 1981 at 145 million hectoliters.
The two biggest producers, "France and Italy were particularly badly affected," said Thierry Coste, the chairman of Copa-Cogeca wine division.
In France, production will be down 18 percent, and in Italy, the biggest wine producer in Europe, it will have sunk by 26 percent compared with last year.
"The quality of the grape is nevertheless expected to be very good across Europe, which should make for an excellent wine," he said.
During the 1980s, record wine production often hovered around the 210 million hectoliter mark. Extreme weather and climate change have further affected output in certain years.
Nowadays, wine production almost never surpasses 170 million hectares a year anymore, although this year’s estimate is particularly low, and was last worse only in 1981.
In the U.S., meanwhile, northern California’s wildfires have destroyed at least two wineries and damaged many others.

Need to address impact of extreme weather events on crops

There is a lot the government can do to assist farmers to cope with climate-induced farming problems Climate change, which for India is predicted to result in higher and more erratic precipitations, will have negative impacts on the productivity of important crops such as rice and wheat.
Beyond general climate change trends, what is more critical is the need to address the impact of climate variability and extreme weather events.
Are there government incentives to smooth out climate and weather shocks and make it easier for farmers to cope with price volatility as well as production and income losses?
The answer is yes.
Fighting climate change in agriculture There are many things farmers can do themselves to cope with climate change.
Practices can range from shifting planting dates in response to changing monsoon onset dates, choosing varieties with different growth duration and adopting zero tillage to cope with climate shocks (Haryana).
There is also a lot the government can do to assist farmers to cope with climate-induced farming problems.
Another important government function is drought monitoring and management, especially critical for areas under water scarcity.
Crop diversification India has a wide range of agro-climatic conditions, allowing for a multitude of crops to be grown, even in smaller areas.
However, since the Green Revolution and the expansion of irrigation capacity, there has been a significant narrowing of the number of crops grown when now only six crops take up the vast majority of land, water and resources, adding to the future vulnerability of the food supply system.

The global climate 2011-2015: Hottest five-year period on record

The global climate 2011-2015: Hottest five-year period on record.
The Global Climate 2011-2015 also examines whether human-induced climate change was directly linked to individual extreme events.
"The effects of climate change have been consistently visible on the global scale since the 1980s: rising global temperature, both over land and in the ocean; sea-level rise; and the widespread melting of ice.
It has increased the risks of extreme events such as heatwaves, drought, record rainfall and damaging floods," said Mr Taalas.
Temperatures for the period were 0.57 °C (1.03 °F) above the average for the standard 1961-1990 reference period.
The year 2015 was also the first year in which global temperatures were more than 1 °C above the pre-industrial era.
Global ocean temperatures were also at unprecedented levels.
Averaged over 2011-2015, the mean Arctic sea-ice extent in September was 4.70 million km2, 28% below the 1981-2010 average.
Climate change and extreme weather Many individual extreme weather and climate events recorded during 2011-2015 were made more likely as a result of human-induced (anthropogenic) climate change.
However, in the case of the extreme rainfall in the United Kingdom in December 2015, it was found that climate change had made such an event about 40% more likely.

1976 drought revealed as worst on record for British butterflies and moths

Scientists at the University of York have revealed that the 1976 drought is the worst extreme event to affect butterflies and moths in the 50 years since detailed records began.
The summer of 1976 saw standpipes in the streets and billions of seven-spot ladybirds swarming in search of food.
Since then, the UK has warmed by a full degree Celsius and experienced numerous bouts of extreme weather, from heavy rainfall and flooding to heatwaves and drought; yet no single year has caused so many butterfly and moth species to crash simultaneously.
"It was the culmination of a two-year event."
said Dr Phil Platts, Postdoctoral Research Associate in York’s Department of Biology and co-author of the study.
"Hot and dry conditions stretched back to the spring of 1975.
The study also looked at the impact of extreme weather on birds, determining that the cold winter of 1981-82 had the biggest effect on their numbers.
"This seems to be truer of short-lived species that can multiply rapidly, like butterflies and moths, than of the birds we studied."
said Professor Tom Brereton, co-author and Head of Monitoring at Butterfly Conservation.
However, global warming is projected to increase the frequency of extreme weather events such as heatwaves and drought, and it is likely that some of these will generate even greater population changes than we have seen so far.

1976 drought revealed as worst on record for British butterflies and moths

The summer of 1976 saw standpipes in the streets and billions of seven-spot ladybirds swarming in search of food.
It was the hottest English summer since records began over 350 years ago – the mercury topped 32 °C for 15 consecutive days across much of southern England, and some regions received no rain for 45 days straight.
Since then, the UK has warmed by a full degree Celsius and experienced numerous bouts of extreme weather, from heavy rainfall and flooding to heatwaves and drought; yet no single year has caused so many butterfly and moth species to crash simultaneously.
"It was the culmination of a two-year event."
said Dr Phil Platts, Postdoctoral Research Associate in York’s Department of Biology and co-author of the study.
This was initially good for butterflies and moths, and their numbers boomed.
The study also looked at the impact of extreme weather on birds, determining that the cold winter of 1981-82 had the biggest effect on their numbers.
"This seems to be truer of short-lived species that can multiply rapidly, like butterflies and moths, than of the birds we studied."
However, global warming is projected to increase the frequency of extreme weather events such as heatwaves and drought, and it is likely that some of these will generate even greater population changes than we have seen so far.
Professor Chris Thomas, senior author in York’s Department of Biology, said: "If we want to avoid a future super-heated drought that will put 1976 in the shade, then we need to address the root cause of climate warming – greenhouse gas emissions.

Computer models find ancient solutions to modern climate problems

Their work, which links ancient climate and archaeological data, could help modern communities identify new crops and other adaptive strategies when threatened by drought, extreme weather and other environmental challenges.
In a new paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Jade d’Alpoim Guedes, assistant professor of anthropology, and WSU colleagues Stefani Crabtree, Kyle Bocinsky and Tim Kohler examine how recent advances in computational modeling are reshaping the field of archaeology.
"Computational modeling gives us an unprecedented ability to identify what worked for these people and what didn’t."
He launched the Village Ecodynamics Project in 2001 to simulate how virtual Pueblo Indian families, living on computer-generated and geographically accurate landscapes, likely would have responded to changes in specific variables like precipitation, population size and resource depletion.
By comparing the results of agent-based models against real archeological evidence, anthropologists can identify past conditions and circumstances that led different civilizations around the world into periods of growth and decline.
‘Video game’ plays out to logical conclusion Agent-based modeling is also used to explore the impact humans can have on their environment during periods of climate change.
"It enables us to not only predict the effectiveness of growing different crops and other adaptations but also how human societies can evolve and impact their environment."
Bocinsky and d’Alpoim Guedes are using the modeling technique to identify little-used or in some cases completely forgotten crops that could be useful in areas where warmer weather, drought and disease impact food supply.
"Cultivating Hopi corn and other traditional, drought-resistant crops could become crucial for human survival in other places impacted by climate change."
"These millets are on the verge of becoming forgotten crops," d’Alpoim Guedes said.