By Mpho Tebele Gaborone- The United Nations has warned of a looming crisis as delayed rains and below-average precipitation since October have reduced cereal production prospects and lowered pasture yields in Southern Africa.
This is contained in the latest report of the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) detailing the impact of reduced rains, which is expected to have caused a contraction in the area planted and lowered yield prospects in most parts of the region.
The report states that “Since the start of the 2018/19 cropping season in October, anomalous dry conditions have developed across parts of Southern Africa, with more intense moisture deficits registered in Botswana, Namibia and South Africa, in addition to the western parts of Madagascar.” In Botswana, the report says, rainfall in October and November was about 60-65% below average.
The report says rangeland provides the bulk of feed requirements and the use of supplementary feed is not a common practice among the majority of households in the traditional farming sector.
Some of the lowest cumulative rainfall was registered in central and southern parts of Otjozondjupa Region, the bulk of Omaheke Region, eastern parts of Hardap and //Kharas regions, several pockets in Erongo, Kunene, Khomas (eastern parts) and the north-eastern regions (including the regions of Omusati, Oshana and Oshikoto), where a significant proportion of communal farming households are located.
In the large cereal‑producing provinces of Free State and North West, reduced rains delayed plantings and are expected to have curbed the area sown; cumulative rainfall at the provincial level has been 40‑50% below average since October.
As a result, the area sown to cereal crops is estimated to have contracted for the 2018/19 cropping season to an average or below‑average level in these countries.
Overall, the 2019 cereal production outlook in most parts of Southern Africa has diminished since the start of the season and average to below-average harvests are foreseen,” the report says.
“It further warns that livestock production is also expected to be curtailed by the dry weather conditions.
Reports indicate that South Africa’s agricultural industry body AgriSA will approach banks, agribusiness and government to raise R3 billion (US$220 million) to help farmers hit by severe drought.

Water scarcity is a top risk to global food production.
1) Competition – and one group wins First, physical water scarcity can occur when there is simply not enough water to meet all demands – when use outpaces replenishment.
For example, when an upstream irrigation scheme consumes too much water, downstream farmers are left to do without.
2) Not everyone has access to the technologies Sometimes technologies to fight water scarcity exist, but the people who need them most are left out by inequitable or otherwise flawed institutions.
Rather, addressing this scarcity also requires overcoming issues of access, equity and siloed thinking.
The right business models can support smallholder farmers to address water scarcity.
For example, investments in developing businesses through training, stronger supply chains and credit access could encourage more entrepreneurs to invest in new technologies such as solar irrigation pumps.
Another option is to invest in increased water storage, such as on-farm ponds.
Policy change in combination with investments in innovative business models is a promising option for alleviating water scarcity.
Only with this winning combination can we protect small farms from water scarcity and take the essential steps toward food security.

s"Land subsidence is a destructive phenomenon," said Siavash Arabi, a measurement expert at Iran’s cartography department.
All those people have put incredible pressure on water resources on a semi-arid plateau in a country that saw only 171 millimeters (6.7 inches) of rain last year.
Over-reliance on ground aquifers has seen increasingly salty water pumped from below ground.
"Gradually, the pressure from above causes the soil particles to stick together and this leads to sinking of the ground and formation of cracks."
German scientists estimate that land under the airport is sinking by 5 centimeters (1.9 inches) a year.
"Rates (for subsidence) are very high and in many instances it’s happening in densely populated areas," said Shafiee.
Already, the drought and water crisis has fed into the sporadic unrest Iran has faced over the last year.
Iranian officials shrugged off the offer.
But solutions to the water crisis will be difficult to find.
Iranian authorities have begun to crack down on illegal water wells.

Seen by satellite and on foot around the city, officials warn that what they call land subsidence poses a grave danger to a country where protests over water scarcity already have seen violence.
“Land subsidence is a destructive phenomenon,” said Siavash Arabi, a measurement expert at Iran’s cartography department.
Over-reliance on ground aquifers has seen increasingly salty water pumped from below ground.
When you pump water from under the ground surface, you cause some empty space to be formed in the soil,” Arabi told The Associated Press.
Iranian authorities say they have measured up to 22 centimeters (8.6 inches) of annual subsidence near the capital, while the normal range would be only as high as 3 centimeters (1.1 inches) per year.
Either way, the numbers are alarming to experts.
German scientists estimate that land under the airport is sinking by 5 centimeters (1.9 inches) a year.
Some 2 million people live in the area, he said.
Already, the drought and water crisis has fed into the sporadic unrest Iran has faced over the last year.
Iranian authorities have begun to crack down on illegal water wells.

Prior to the crisis in the Syrian Arab Republic, 1.5 million ha of land were under irrigation and 4 million tonnes of wheat were produced annually, ensuring self-sufficiency for bread – the country’s major staple food.
Consecutive joint assessments conducted by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) have found a decrease in food production and the adoption of negative coping mechanisms.
During the 2017/18 cropping season, below-average rainfall in the first three months led to a further reduction in the production of wheat and barley.
The areas planted for wheat were reduced by about half compared with the previous two seasons.
The domestic production of wheat was estimated to be 1.2 million tonnes in 2018, which is lower than the previous year and much lower than pre-crisis production levels.
This year’s season was classified as one of the worst in more than 20 years, due to the combination of drought and late rainfall, which affected both rain-fed and irrigated production.
Many farmers left their land, while those who have remained do not have access to quality seeds and inputs.
For the current planting season, which takes place in November and December 2018, the lack of good quality seeds is the main concern.
Thanks to a generous Belgian contribution of USD 400 000, through the Special Fund for Emergency and Rehabilitation (SFERA), FAO aims to improve the food security and nutrition of drought-affected farmers in the Syrian Arab Republic through distributing quality seeds and inputs for resumption of increased wheat production.
This partnership will benefit 1 850 families (11 100 people) in Al-Hasakeh and Deir-ez-Zor, who will also receive training on good agricultural practices.

Farmers in Zimbabwe are appealing for funds to irrigate their land, in hopes of fending off a possible drought predicted by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization.
FAO says droughts caused by the El Nino weather pattern are recurring more often and that might affect food security.
At Mugutu farm, about 40 kilometers north of Harare, a tractor tills land ahead of the rainy season, expected any time now.
But at another farm nearby, 59-year-old Tsitsi Marjorie Makaya is focused on raising her chickens.
“We cannot do irrigation, we do not have the money to set up the irrigation system, the money to buy pipes, for electricity, we do not have the money.
We only managed to drill a borehole and that is how we water our garden.
We cannot put the whole plot under irrigation because we do not have all the necessary equipment,” Makaya said.
Sometimes they said there is not much rain and we end up having plenty of rain.
Kormawa said even smallholder irrigation schemes were improving food security and income in countries where agriculture is the backbone of the economy.
Source: VOA News

Farmers in Zimbabwe are appealing for funds to irrigate their land, in hopes of fending off a possible drought predicted by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization.
FAO says droughts caused by the El Nino weather pattern are recurring more often and that might affect food security.
At Mugutu farm, about 40 kilometers north of Harare, a tractor tills land ahead of the rainy season, expected any time now.
But at another farm nearby, 59-year-old Tsitsi Marjorie Makaya is focused on raising her chickens.
“We cannot do irrigation, we do not have the money to set up the irrigation system, the money to buy pipes, for electricity, we do not have the money.
We only managed to drill a borehole and that is how we water our garden.
We cannot put the whole plot under irrigation because we do not have all the necessary equipment,” Makaya said.
When asked if she was aware of the predicted El Nino drought predicted, the former vegetable vendor said it was beyond people’s control.
Sometimes they said there is not much rain and we end up having plenty of rain.
Kormawa said even smallholder irrigation schemes were improving food security and income in countries where agriculture is the backbone of the economy.

Most people don’t even give it a second thought, but that will change drastically within the next few decades.
About 71 percent of the earth is covered in water, so what’s the big deal?
The issue is that only about 2.5 percent of that water is freshwater and 1 percent is readily drinkable.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, more than 30 percent of the water which we use is taken from underground aquifers.
And in Florida—a state which is responsible for 40 percent of the world’s orange juice supply—90 percent of all water comes from aquifers.
These aquifers are necessary for the survival of over 40 percent of the world’s population.
In 2010, the United Nations recognized access to clean drinking water as a basic human right.
Unlike other commodities, water is necessary for life.
I believe that it is one of the most pressing and difficult issues which our generation will have to face, as water is such an integral part of life on Earth.
If we don’t make some breakthrough in how we are able to create water efficiently or make some drastic policy changes in the next few years, we will likely be looking at a crisis which will push the extremes of poverty and further the disparity between the rich and the poor.

The water level has receded in the Mosul Dam Lake, pictured here in May.
A new Turkish dam upstream on the Tigris River could make matters worse.
REUTERS/Khalid Al-Mousily Water scarcity in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region can either be a destabilizing factor or a motive that binds communities together, according to a new joint report from the United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Bank.
More than 60 percent of the region’s population is concentrated in places affected by high or very high surface water stress, compared to a global average of about 35 percent, it noted.
The report warned that if left unchecked, climate-related water scarcity is expected to cause economic losses estimated at 6 to 14 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2050, the highest in the world.
Speaking at the session, FAO Regional Programme Coordinator for the Near East and North Africa, Pasquale Steduto, explained that economic losses mean rising unemployment, compounded by the impact of water scarcity on traditional livelihoods such as agriculture, could result in food insecurity and force people to migrate.
Steduto, who is also co-lead author of the report, stated that the good news is that actions can be taken to prevent water scarcity and instability from becoming a vicious cycle, by focusing on sustainable, efficient and equitable water resources management and service delivery.
World Bank Senior Water Resources Management Specialist and report co-lead author, Anders Jagerskog asserted that water scarcity always has both a local dimension, as it directly impacts communities, and a regional one, as water resources cross borders.
“Addressing water scarcity is an opportunity to empower local communities to develop their own local consensus on strategies for addressing the challenge.
Regional partnerships to manage shared resources is a step toward greater regional integration.

As the continent feels the heat of climate change, it is time it adopts measures to better manage its water and land to build greater resilience to droughts Despite the drought-prone Near East and North Africa facing hoards of problems like water scarcity, degraded land and fragile soil, the region has not made a fundamental shift from recovering from drought to trying to be not susceptible to one.
“Climate change is expected to affect all the countries.
Evidence suggests that rainfall patterns have shifted in terms of timing, duration, and intensity – all of which pose challenges to land users, hydro-power corporations, industry, and urban centres,” says an FAO report published on Monday.
But, countries in this region are just focussing on disaster relief, which includes measures like ensuring drinking water supplies, providing subsidies for irrigation equipment and well drilling, providing feed to safeguard livestock, restructuring farmer debts, creating jobs in rural areas, and implementing public awareness campaigns.
The study says that these “well-meant” actions “can have unforeseen consequences”.
“Providing livestock feed, for example, can stop nomads from moving to places that are less stressed causing over-grazing in areas, particularly around the larger conurbations.
“Many countries see long-term development of water resources as being proactive in mitigating drought, but poor planning can actually exacerbate the impacts of drought and the missed opportunities to attenuate them,” says the UN wing.
“Current agricultural policies are leading to increasing land degradation and impoverishment and need to be re-examined in the light of drought mitigation,” the report highlights.
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