NWS: Prepare for drought
Commonwealth residents are being encouraged to prepare for a drought, which could mean increased collateral effects such as lesser water to go around and more brush fires.
According to Nadine Deleon Guerrero, the external affairs officer of the CNMI Homeland Security and Emergency, the Commonwealth experiences a drought every year, but it started earlier than usual this year and they are unsure how long it will last.
That means the CNMI community should be prepared to conserve water and to keep burning to an absolute minimum to ensure safety from wildfires.
Deleon Guerrero said the drought started in January when it usually starts around March.
“Just be mindful that it won’t be raining as much and keep yourselves hydrated,” she added.
Last Tuesday, the National Weather Service in Tiyan, Guam, issued a notice of anticipated dry weather for the Commonwealth.
Saipan, Tinian, Rota, and the far Northern Islands will experience the severe impact of the drought.
In particular for Saipan, the drawdown of fresh water resources could be a problem in the next few weeks to months.
Vegetation will dry out and a severe wildfire season could develop, especially where debris from Typhoon Yutu remains.
Because of the anticipated dry weather, HSEM is advising the community to take all necessary precautions at this time.
High Surf Will Likely Push Contaminated Water Into IB Streets Friday
Imperial Beach Braces for Polluted Flooding Nearly every time it rains on the south side of the U.S.-Mexico border, beach activity in Imperial Beach comes to a stop as contaminated runoff washes onto its shorelines.
North-flowing currents push and spread the contaminants across south county shorelines and force days-long water contact closures.
Week-long rains have already forced the closure of shorelines as far north as Coronado State Beach, but now IB is bracing for something even more hazardous.
The big surf will almost certainly push sewage-contaminated ocean water into IB streets.
“Not with these signs posted.
Not with a wetsuit.
Not with a full beanie and booties.
The thought of that water making its way into city streets makes him, and Mayor Serge Dedina, uneasy.
The plaintiffs claim the federal government isn’t doing enough to stop the contaminated water from reaching U.S. waterways.
While Dedina monitors the situation with the federal government, he’s also hyper-focused at the local level.
Drought Persists Across Much Of The Mountain West
Parts of the Mountain West have been tangled up in long-term drought and it doesn’t look like it’s lifting anytime soon.
Nearly all of Utah and two-thirds of Colorado are in some form of drought, according to the latest numbers from the federal U.S. Drought Monitor.
David Simeral is a climatologist with the Western Regional Climate Center in Reno.
He says high temperatures over the past year evaporated what rain the states did get that might’ve soaked the ground.
“We had a warm winter last year and temperatures were above normal in the summertime as well, so the soil columns were very dry,” Simeral says.
The National Weather Service’s three-month forecast shows a chance for above-average precipitation for Colorado and southern Utah.
But Simeral says it’ll likely be warmer than normal as well.
“We’re looking at above normal temperatures across the winter in general,” he says.
About a quarter of Idaho is in some form of drought, while Wyoming is just starting to see dry conditions creep in.
This story was produced by the Mountain West News Bureau, a collaboration between Wyoming Public Media, Boise State Public Radio in Idaho, KUER in Salt Lake City and KRCC and KUNC in Colorado.
Despite early season snow, Southwest remains in grip of severe drought
Caption + Show MoreShow Less More than half of Colorado remains in the grip of drought classified as severe to exceptional , and the state would need more snow than this winter’s predicted El Niño is likely to deliver to provide much relief, scientists say.
About 83 percent is in some stage of drought and 13.35 percent of the state, mostly in the southwest corner, is in exceptional drought.
+3 Caption + Show MoreShow Less Stream flows in the southwest portion of the state also are much below normal, according to data from the U.S. Geological Survey.
Thirteen streamflow stations between Mesa and Archuleta counties were reported as much below normal compared to historic levels, three as below normal and five as normal.
The dearth of water is obvious in Blue Mesa Reservoir, the largest reservoir in Colorado.
The data paints an even more startling picture: the reservoir is at 43 percent of its average capacity recorded between 1985 and 2016.
+3 Caption + Show MoreShow Less Downstream, Lake Powell made headlines earlier this year when it dropped to less than half full.
This year was the second driest year on record for the major reservoir in Arizona, lagging just behind 2002.
To fully lift the Four Corners out of the drought by June, the region would need to receive 173 percent of normal precipitation, NOAA models show.
+3 Caption + Show MoreShow Less "We entered winter a bit early" Fontenot said.
Despite rain, county remains in drought
As of Friday morning, just under 1.5 inches of rain had fallen in Roseburg in the past few days.
More than 34 percent of the state is currently in an extreme drought, which includes most of Douglas County, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Compare that to the same time last year, when none of the state was in a drought.
Marc Spilde, a NWS meteorologist, said everyone is counting on rain this winter, because two years of drought doesn’t bode well for the following summer, especially for fire season.
Spilde said, “If we have another winter here where it’s dry it’s going to be problematic going into the summer.
“Up in our area we had one day of lightning this summer and you saw what it did.
Spilde said normally there would be 2.5 inches of rain in the first two weeks of the month.
Typically there would be more than two and a half inches of rain, Spilde said.
But, he said, it could happen.
Stream flows for October were 57 percent of normal, according to the water report.
California and National Drought Summary for November 13, 2018, 10 Day Weather Outlook, and California Drought Statistics
In the mountains of drought-stricken areas of Colorado and New Mexico, the cool-season is off to a positive start in portions of the central and southern Rockies where snow shower activity continued this week.
In the Southeast, widespread rain shower activity helped alleviate areas of dryness in Alabama and Georgia while short-term precipitation deficits led to expansion of drought in portions of Florida.
Elsewhere in the region, light-to-moderate rainfall accumulations (1-to-4 inches) were observed in coastal areas of the region leading to removal of an area of Abnormally Dry (D0) in the Mid-Coast of Maine.
Southeast On this week’s map, widespread shower activity improved conditions leading to removal of areas of Abnormally Dry (D0) in northern Alabama and eastern Georgia as well as removal of a small area of Moderate Drought (D1) in northeastern Georgia.
In Florida, below-normal soil moisture levels and precipitation deficits during the past 60 days led to expansion of areas of Abnormally Dry (D0) in southern and eastern portions of the state as well as the introduction of Moderate Drought (D1) in east-central Florida where 7-day average streamflows were well below normal.
Average temperatures across northern portions of the region were 1-to-6 degrees below normal while southern portions, including southern Georgia and Florida, were 3-to-9 degrees above normal for the week.
South On this week’s map, only minor improvements were made in the region including removal of remaining areas of Abnormally Dry (D0) in northeastern and southwestern Mississippi where heavy rains this week erased existing short-term precipitation deficits.
High Plains On this week’s map, improvements were made in North Dakota with the removal of two areas of Severe Drought (D2) in response to normal to above-normal precipitation during the past 30-to-60 days.
Continued dry conditions in California led to expansion of an areas of Moderate Drought (D1) in the Sacramento Valley, extending to the western foothills of the northern Sierra Nevada.
Average temperatures were below-normal across most of the region during the past week.
Woolsey Fire Latest: Water Supply Threatened, 91K Acres Burned
MALIBU, CA – Santa Ana winds picked up again Monday and were expected to continue into Tuesday as firefighters battling the deadly Woolsey Fire in Los Angeles and Ventura counties worked to hold back the flames.
The blaze had burned 91,572 acres and was 20 percent contained, with full containment not expected until Thursday.
Santa Ana wind gusts reached as high as 60 miles per hour in parts of Ventura County on Monday and heavy gusts could follow Tuesday, National Weather Service Meteorologist Curt Kaplan said.
A Red Flag Warning remained in effect for Los Angeles and Ventura counties through Tuesday, when winds will be strongest in the mornings and early afternoons, giving firefighters a nightly reprieve, Kaplan said.
Related: SCE Investigated For Role In Woolsey Fire: Report While most evacuation orders remained in effect, the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department announced that repopulation has begun for Agoura Hills, Westlake Village, Oak Park, North Ranch, Newbury Park residents affected by the fire.
A total of 450 engines, 40 water tenders, 50 bulldozers, and 50 crews were sent into the battle, Cal Fire reported.
Firefighters also had to deal with a fast-moving brush fire along the 118 Freeway near the Los Angeles/Ventura county line, which burned 105 acres and forced the immediate evacuation of Box Canyon and Lake Manor residents.
Meanwhile, the California Public Utilities Commission is investigating Southern California Edison for its possible role in the fire.
Osby credited the Los Angeles Fire Department with keeping areas to the south, especially in Bell Canyon, "buttoned up" employing some 50 engines on the fire’s flank to keep it from spreading south of Mulholland Highway into Pacific Palisades and Topanga Canyon.
"Pepperdine has a long-standing understanding with the county fire and sheriff’s departments," Richardson said.
Drought Conditions Continue to Improve across Southeast Colorado
October Drought Information Statement from National Weather Service Abundant precipitation over the Summer of 2018 across southeast Colorado has continued throughout the early Fall, with several weather systems bringing more beneficial precipitation across the area in September and October.
This abundant moisture has brought an end to the drought across portions of the far Southeastern Colorado Plains, as well as helped to ease the drought across portions of South Central and Southeast Colorado.
With that said, the latest US Drought Monitor, issued Thursday November 1st, is indicating most of Baca County, as well as eastern portions of Prowers and Kiowa Counties, as drought free.
However, the current map continues to depict portions of South Central and Southeast Colorado deep in drought, with Exceptional Drought (D4) conditions indicated across most of Mineral County and extreme western portions of Conejos County, as well as across portions of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains of Southern Colorado, which includes portions of Costilla, Huerfano, Alamosa, Custer and Saguache Counties.
Severe Drought (D2) conditions are also depicted across the rest of Pueblo and Huerfano, Counties, extreme western portions of Otero County and western into central portions of Las Animas County.
Summer and early Fall precipitation has helped to ease fire danger across much of South Central and Southeast Colorado.
The latest monthly Evaporative Demand Index across indicating near normal to well above moisture across the area.
In the Arkansas Basin, the November 1st snowpack came in at 189 percent of average, with the Upper Rio Grande Basin coming in at 216 percent of average.
With the hot and dry conditions over the past several months, especially across western portions of the state, statewide water storage came in at 80 percent of average overall at the end of September, as compared to 117 percent of average storage available statewide at the same time last year.
In the Rio Grande Basin, end of September storage came in at 88 percent of average overall, as compared to 125 percent of average storage available at the same time last year.
Drought conditions improve in North Alabama, southern middle Tennessee
Additional rain expected early next week will provide additional help with the drought conditions.
http://DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU/MAP
http://WWW.ADECA.ALABAMA.GOV/DIVISIONS/OWR/PAGES/DEFAULT.ASPX
http://FORESTRY.ALABAMA.GOV
http://FORESTRY.ALABAMA.GOV/FIRE_TOTALS.ASPX?BV=1&S=4
http://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP
http://WATERWATCH.USGS.GOV/INDEX.PHP
http://WWW.TVA.COM/ENVIRONMENT/LAKE-LEVELS
http://WWW.EMC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MMB/NLDAS/DROUGHT
https://WWW.GSA.STATE.AL.US/GSA/GROUNDWATER/REALTIME
Study predicts more extreme weather like 2011 Texas drought, thanks to global warming
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Foreground — White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan — Opaque Semi-Opaque Background — White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan — Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window — White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan — Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Default Monospace Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Sans-Serif Casual Script Small Caps Defaults Done Extreme weather such as floods, droughts and heat waves are likely to become more frequent in coming years because of global warming, according to a new study.
Human-caused global warming will be associated with more extreme jet stream patterns, which will lead to more extreme weather, says a study published in Science Advances and released this week.
QRA is short for quasi-resonant amplification, which refers to extreme and unusual jet stream patterns.
The study mentions examples such as the 2003 European heat wave, the 2010 Pakistan flood and Russian heat waves, and the 2011 Texas and Oklahoma heat wave and drought.
Texas had its driest year on record in 2011, according to the National Weather Service.
The lack of rain that year put more than 97 percent of the Lone State State in a severe drought condition, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
A briefing for the Texas Legislature by the Office of the State Climatologist reported that the 2011 drought was “susceptibility due to global ocean temperature patterns.” The report added that while global weather patterns “tend to reverse themselves over time” in the future “the safest bet is that global temperatures will continue to increase, causing Texas droughts to be warmer and more strongly affected by evaporation.” These extreme weather events are likely to increase “under business-as-usual burning of fossil fuels, keeping in mind our assumption that the historically defined fingerprint remains valid in the future climate,” the study said.
But that figure varies among model simulations and could increase by even more, “roughly tripling” the number of events.
Although so much consistent rainfall can be concerning, National Weather Service meteorologist Lee Carlaw said it’s difficult to definitively connect two consecutive months of record-setting rain to something such as climate change.