The caliphate is besieged.
ISIS’s self-image is enhanced by the level of force used against it by the “crusader states” of the “far enemy”.
ISIS’s current strategy has two more elements.
A view across decades These operations aim to stir up as much anti-Muslim bigotry as possible.
A recent report finds that twenty-two Arab countries are home to 300 million people aged 15-24, while those in Asia and the Pacific have 400 million.
The Arab states in particular suffer from very high rates of youth unemployment, averaging 30% for the region but peaking in war-torn states such as Yemen at 55%.
ISIS today seems to be near collapse, but the longer-term prospects for it and like-minded movements are far more promising than many in the west are ready to acknowledge.
Its executive secretary Monique Barbut points to the 375 million young people who will enter African job markets by 2032, over half (200 million) of whom will be living in rural areas.
In short, there are many tens of millions of young, educated and knowledgeable people across the Middle East, Africa and Asia who have grounds to see the world from an entirely different perspective to leaderships and elites in the global north.
ISIS today seems to be near collapse, at least in a territorial sense.