Norway’s Transition To Electric Vehicles Will Take Several Decades Even In Most Optimistic Scenarios, According To New Study.
The most optimistic scenario examined in the study showed a 90% market share in Norway for new all-electric vehicles by as soon as 2024, but even in this scenario, a 90% market penetration rate wouldn’t occur until 2039 — about 22 years from now.
Such a supposition depends, though, on the expectation of a stable marketplace for autos, gasoline, and fossil fuels in general over the coming decades, and a relatively stable economic environment and geopolitical environment for that matter — things which are very unlikely when you take a look at all of the looming problems related to economically recoverable resources, climate change, agricultural productivity, and water scarcity.
With regard to the new study, here’s more from Green Car Congress: “Using a stock-flow model based on data from Norway… In his paper in the journal Energy Policy, Lasse Fridstrøm finds that… For light duty freight vehicles (LDVs), the corresponding milestones would be reached in 2026 and 2040, respectively, according to the same optimistic policy scenario.
Based on the Markov chain principle — by which the flows and stock in year t depend only on the stock of the previous year t-1, Fridstrøm’s model projects year-by-year changes in the fleet of vehicles in each category, classified by age, weight and powertrain (energy) technology.
The trend scenario is essentially an extrapolation of the changes in market shares observed between 2010 and 2015.” That being the case, there will no doubt be some who will object to the findings, but it should be realized here that the rate of electric vehicle adoption in Norway during 2010–2015 was extremely fast — by no means a “conservative” estimate for future growth rates.
As a reminder, however, the Norwegian government is currently aiming for all new passenger car sales to be fully battery electrics or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles by 2025.
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