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A World in Trouble: Drought, War, Food, Flight

These recent moments of urgent concern from ten and six years ago mirror the near-disaster of the world food crisis of 1973-74, when multiple elements put at least 22 million people at risk.
But that very success pointed to an underlying feature of all such crises, which needs to be better understood: namely, there has never been too little food to go round, for (at least since 1945) world grain resources have not been anywhere near complete depletion.
Now there is a real problem, with the FAO calculating that some 60% people across the world who face hunger live in countries experiencing conflict or climate change, or both at once.
The effect of conflict on food availability, as in the many irregular wars of recent years, is clear enough.
Time to act Since the early 1990s It has been recognised that climate change is an asymmetric process, which is likely to lead to a progressive drying out of the tropical and sub-tropical regions.
Since the tropics and sub-tropics provide much of the food for the whole world, the implications of a fall in the carrying-capacity of the croplands would be progressive and, ultimately, catastrophic (see "Climate change and global security", 2 January 2003).
The degree of vulnerability is shown by the relative availability of renewable water resources in different parts of the world.
These are necessary and buy time, but only up to a point.
Yet there is currently little evidence that western governments recognise their long-term significance and growing connection to climate change (see "Mediterranean dreams, climate realities", 23 April 2015).
What is happening now is a marker for much greater pressures as climate change translates into climate disruption.

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