Drought developing across parts of Europe
This prolonged dry period has pluses and minuses.
What this tells us is that both these areas are running around to less than 50 percent of their normal rainfall for this period.
The question becomes, how long will this dry period last?
Areas that have seen normal to above-normal precipitation amounts from the past month (northern Spain into the Balkans) will continue to have scattered storms.
Western Germany will have much of their precipitation from the slow-moving closed upper-level low over the next 72 hours, then will dry out, the rest of the area will generally receive isolated storms, which will be mainly across Wales, and Ireland into Scotland.
This in turn will help with drought relief across much of Ukraine into the Baltic States and eastern Poland.
When you look across western Germany into the British Isles one might perk up and think…ooo some relief, but when you put it into context that many locations have for the month of July between 50 and 75 mm (2-3 inches of rain) and you started the first quarter of the month essentially dry, then add roughly 19 to 38 mm (0.75-1.50 inches) of rain by the time 75 percent of the month has gone, you are still left with around 50 percent for the month with about a week left.
The point I am trying to get across is that the area from western Germany into the British Isles is more likely to have their dry conditions continue through the next two weeks with isolated to scattered storms.
The less precipitation you have, the more likely the ground is going to be dry.
These small flames could lead to significant conditions if they fall on dry ground with fire fuel (dry scrub, leaves, etc.)