The chance of a spring El Niño, along with other climate drivers, is likely to mean below-average rainfall for large parts of the country in the coming months.
A dry winter for most of Australia Winter rainfall has been below average over most of Australia’s eastern mainland.
Large parts of New South Wales are on track to have winter rainfall in the lowest 10% of records.
El Niño during spring typically means below-average rainfall across eastern and northern Australia.
A positive IOD during spring typically means below-average rainfall in central and southern Australia.
So, what’s the outlook for spring?
With a reasonable chance of both El Niño developing and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, the outlook for spring shows below-average rainfall is likely over much of the southeast and parts of the northeast and southwest.
No part of the country favours above-average rainfall in the spring outlook.
Read more: How to prepare your home for a bushfire – and when to leave The above average temperatures in 2018 so far, combined with below average rainfall and dry vegetation, mean a higher likelihood of fire activity in parts of southern Australia.
The warm and dry outlook for spring means the drought in parts of the country’s east is likely to continue.