The figures for crops in the eastern states, particularly in New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria are striking, with NSW winter crop production tipped to slump a massive 46 per cent compared to last year.
The forecast NSW total winter crop for 2018-19, at 3.89 million tonnes, is barely 26 per cent of the size of the massive 14.78 million tonne crop produced by the state in 2010-11.
The “winter crop” includes major broadacre farm crops like wheat, barley, canola and oats.
With Australian farms growing in size and winter cropping a costly exercise, a dramatically smaller crop in major farming states will have a significant impact on farming revenue and subsequently, on regional economies.
The national figure is boosted by prospects in Western Australia, where the winter crop is forecast to rise 12 per cent to 16.32 million tonnes.
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The ABARES report said that in NSW and Queensland “most cropping regions” received unfavourable seasonal conditions earlier this year, which “curtailed planting late in the planting window and yields are expected to be generally well below average”.
In Western Australia, favourable spring conditions could boost production beyond that being forecast.” ABARES executive director, Steve Hatfield-Dodds, said well below average production was expected in NSW and Queensland because of unfavourable seasonal conditions.
“The very poor conditions in most cropping regions in New South Wales and Queensland have been partly offset by forecast above average yields in Western Australia, following favourable rainfall in late autumn and winter,” Dr Hatfield-Dodds said.
“Overall, this has resulted in ABARES revising down our current forecast by 12 per cent from the one we published in June.