Cattle on feed, drought and floods.
Placements in July were up 2.7 percent year over year, the largest since 2013.
July placements, though up year over year, were up less than the double-digit levels of the previous four months.
Certainly, placements in South Dakota, up 48 percent year over year since May, have increased much more than the average increase for other cattle feeding states and it is likely that much of that increase is drought-forced feeder cattle movement.
Drought-related changes in placements in other states are difficult to estimate but it appears that 6 to 13 percent of the total year over year increase in placements (518,000 head) in May, June and July may be due to the drought.
USDA currently estimates that about 12 percent of the total cattle herd in the country is in regions experiencing some level of drought.
I estimate that 6.5 to 7 percent of the total beef cow herd or roughly 2.1 million beef cows are in regions suffering with severe (D2) to exceptional (D4) drought conditions.
This includes nearly a million head of cows in Montana and 500-700,000 head each in North and South Dakota.
Lack of forage has led to significant destocking in the worst areas with cows culled or relocated to other regions.
Cattle losses are likely as deep water and widespread flood conditions are expected to persist for many days in some regions.