Climate change predicted to increase Nile flow variability.
Being able to predict the amount of flow variability, and even to forecast likely years of reduced flow, will become ever more important as the population of the Nile River basin, primarily in Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia, is expected to double by 2050, reaching nearly 1 billion.
The new study, based on a variety of global climate models and records of rainfall and flow rates over the last half-century, projects an increase of 50 percent in the amount of flow variation from year to year.
Originally, the correlation he showed between the El Niño/La Niña cycle and Ethiopian rainfall had been aimed at helping with seasonal and short-term predictions of the river’s flow, for planning storage and releases from the river’s many dams and reservoirs.
While there has been controversy about that dam, and especially about how the filling of its reservoir will be coordinated with downstream nations, Eltahir says this study points to the importance of focusing on the potential impacts of climate change and rapid population growth as the most significant drivers of environmental change in the Nile basin.
"Climate change predicted to increase Nile flow variability: Climate change could lead to overall increase in river flow, but more droughts and floods, study shows."
ScienceDaily, 24 April 2017.
Climate change predicted to increase Nile flow variability: Climate change could lead to overall increase in river flow, but more droughts and floods, study shows.
Retrieved April 24, 2017 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/04/170424141236.htm Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
"Climate change predicted to increase Nile flow variability: Climate change could lead to overall increase in river flow, but more droughts and floods, study shows."