Could Tompkins County have another drought this summer?.
And the summer after that.
And the summer after that.
According to early predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association, Tompkins County – and the whole of the northeastern United States – is on course for another summer marked by above average temperatures.
Between 1895 and 2011, temperatures in the Northeastern United States have increased by almost 2˚F and, with it, high volume precipitation events have increased by more than 70 percent since 1958, according to figures from the 2014 National Climate Assessment while concurrently, droughtlike conditions related to bouts of extreme heat are predicted to intensify.
None of this definitively means there will be a drought this summer: as climatologists can only determine the outlook for precipitation about 14 days out (it looks like the next two weeks will be fairly wet, Spaccio said), it is almost impossible to predict whether or not all the pieces will fall into place leading to another drought, especially when the water table is at a healthy level.
“Right now, (a drought) is not expected,” Spaccio said.
“But conditions can change and, if we were to get a change in the weather conditions, we’d reexamine that.” But, she said, the conversation on summer droughts may soon become a regular occurrence at the start of every summer.
“We are expecting to see more of these long and short term droughts due to the effects of climate change,” she said.
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