Don Paul: No signs of a recurring drought this spring or summer
Here is the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s/CPC temperature outlook for May through July: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif CPC is estimating a 40 percent probability of temperatures running above average during that time period.
Wet soil holds temperatures down.
Dry soil allows the air above to heat more readily during the day.
It’s unlikely our soil will stay so wet later in spring and into summer, but there remains a good deal of uncertainty about precipitation trends.
That means there is no clear tendency for precipitation, with CPC’s estimate of a decent chance for drier-than-average conditions to our west in the northern and western Great Lakes.
Should wetter than average conditions become more persistent in the eastern Great Lakes, soil moisture would stay higher than average and hold temperatures down to some extent.
The CPC seasonal drought outlook reflects little abnormal dryness anywhere near us: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.png The abnormal dryness over the southeast United States will allow the air to heat to above-average temperatures more often, and that is why the confidence for hotter-than-average conditions is higher over that part of the country and parts of the middle Atlantic and Northeast.
Threading the needle, CPC believes abnormal warmth is more likely just east of Western New York.
However, even with this wet April we’ve been having, our monthly temperatures so far are still running above average.
If that verifies, it would tend to produce more warm and humid days than average.