In mid-February, extreme drought conditions were declared by the NWS in southern third of Apache County and a slice of south-central Navajo County, but no further.
During March most of northern Arizona had 50 percent or less of normal rainfall or snowfall; with Show Low receiving just one-third of the normal amount or precipitation for the month.
Although the La Nina is expected to weaken as spring progresses, “odds are still tilted in favor of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation through June,” the outlook states.
The Wildland Fire Potential Outlook from the National Interagency Fire Center shows near normal fire risks for Arizona through the months of April and May, but above normal fire dangers for the month of June, as fuel moisture levels in the forests are predicted to decline as spring progresses.
John Whatley, Assistant Fire Manager for the U.S. Forest Service at Apache Sitgreaves National Forest, says that the reason the fire danger remains at normal levels currently, is because the precipitation we have received occurred at pretty regular intervals, which has helped to moderate the fire danger, despite the drought.
April is expected to be at a normal fire danger trending to above normal.
According to Catrina Jenkins, emergency management deputy director for Navajo County, the White Mountain Fire Restrictions Coordinating Group meets weekly by phone or in-person to discuss fire danger conditions and to make decisions about when restrictions will be enacted.
The group is made up of officials from several levels of government, including the Forest Service, The state Department of Forestry and Fire Management, area tribal officials, county emergency management, local fire departments and law enforcement.
Last year, Stage 1 restrictions began on June 16.
Whatley said he expects that we may enter Stage 1 restrictions in mid-May, but that depends upon what happens this month.