Weather whiplash is the perfect descriptor for what’s on tap for the Southwest.
Things have been hot and dry since this winter, but they could get wet and wild this weekend as the remnants of Hurricane Bud drench Arizona and parts of New Mexico.
And it’s almost certainly not going to make up the precipitation deficit currently plaguing the region.
New Mexico isn’t far behind, with 99 percent of the state in drought save a sliver of its southern edge.
The dry conditions have raised the risk of significant fires, and a number are already burning.
“If it does materialize, the precipitation will definitely help, but I am concerned about a long break in precipitation after this,” Crimmins said.
“We could spur a lot of summer vegetation to start growing and it may run headlong into several weeks of hot and dry conditions if the monsoon season precipitation doesn’t materialize later this month.” The current drought conditions can be tied back to a very dry winter.
Arizona had its sixth-driest November-April on record while New Mexico had its third-driest.
Relentless heat has cranked the drought into overdrive, with the states respectively having their warmest and second-warmest November-April on record.
Crimmins said the looming storm shows it “can be feast or famine” for precipitation in the Southwest.