Is Australia’s current drought caused by climate change? It’s complicated
Drought is a complex beast and can be measured in a variety of ways.
Climate change may affect these drought metrics and types of drought differently, so it is hard to make general statements about the links between human-induced climate change and drought.
We know that over southern Australia, and in particular the southwest, there has been a rapid decline in winter rainfall, and that this has been linked to climate change.
In the southeast there has also been a decline but the trend is harder to distinguish from the year-to-year variability.
For recent short-term droughts in southern Australia, analyses have found an increased likelihood of rainfall deficits related to human-caused climate change.
Future projections of drought are also difficult to constrain, as they vary across Australia and depend on the measure of drought being used.
Climate models project a continuing decline in rainfall over southern Australia over the next century.
River flows are also projected to decline in parts of the country, with consequences for water supply to cities, ecosystems and agriculture.
Part of the challenge of projecting future change is related to how temperature and precipitation vary together.
There is some evidence to suggest that climate change is exacerbating drought conditions in parts of Australia, especially in the southwest and southeast.