Is Syria really a ‘climate war’?
The links between drought, migration and conflict.
The Syrian civil war has raged for more than six years now.
You’ve probably heard the following story linking it to climate change: an intense drought, made more likely thanks to global warming, caused "mass migration" within the country from rural to urban areas, which in turn contributed to the 2011 uprising which then escalated into civil conflict.
In our research, we broke down the popular "climate war" claim into two parts – the link between drought and migration, and the link between migration and conflict – to see if and how these factors fit together.
In the case of Syria, there has been no scientifically proven link between reduced rainfall or failed crops, and rural-urban migration.
Just look at the Kurdistan region of Iraq, which was affected by the same dry period as Syria but without any mass migration flows at the time.
A community’s vulnerability to drought is more important than the drought itself.
From migration to conflict The second stage of the Syrian narrative is that migration causes violent conflict.
While some research does suggest a connection, there is also evidence suggesting no strong link at all.