Tight water usage restrictions have been successful in stalling ‘day zero’ – when the city’s taps will be turned off—until 2019, buying time for authorities to look for more ways to manage the crisis.
The JRC, with data from its Global Drought Observatory (GDO), provides analytical reports on the crisis as it develops.
Rainfall levels in April, May and June, during the wettest period of the year, can give some indication as to the likelihood and timescale for recovery.
But the roots of the current situation run much deeper.
With climate change spurring more and more extreme weather events, severe shortages could become an increasingly regular occurrence in the future.
Water shortage and rising temperatures JRC scientists looked at precipitation in Southern Africa over the past 36 years and found that there exists a strong probability of 50-70 percent monthly precipitation deficit every 5 years (more moisture lost through evaporation and transpiration than is gained through rainfall).
In the Western Cape, the deficit could reach as high as 70-80 percent every 10 years.
Preparing for the future But it’s not all bad news.
Understanding the current situation from this perspective can help policymakers to better plan actions to minimise the impact of water shortages.
The scientists suggest that short term measures such as water restrictions must be combined with more structural medium to long-term measures, including: Exploring the diversification of food production towards more drought-resistant crop varieties; Investing in climate resilience and early actions with more appropriate infrastructures and information systems to help policy makers.