Economists cut growth forecasts as soybean estimates slump Farmers brace for worst crop since 2009 as dryness continues Argentine President Mauricio Macri was banking on a near-record soybean crop to drive economic growth of 3.5 percent this year and extend the nation’s recovery.
Instead, this year’s drought, on course to be the worst in 30 years, has farmers bracing for the poorest harvest since 2009.
It’s an unwanted surprise for a government with a daunting list of tasks that already includes taming inflation, closing the fiscal gap and boosting exports.
The government may need to trim its forecast for gross domestic product in 2018 if dryness persists this week, Guido Sandleris, the chief adviser at the Treasury Ministry, said on Monday.
No significant rain is predicted.
“This will probably have a very serious impact on the economy, exports and tax collection,” said Emilce Terre, chief economist at the Rosario Board of Trade.
The average GDP estimate has dropped to 2.5 percent from 2.9 percent last month.
Soybean and corn shipments account for 36 percent of total exports and the government taxes the former.
That year, analysts predicted a soy crop of 46.2 million metric tons.
“We could be looking at a repeat of 2009.” — With assistance by Jorgelina Do Rosario, and Ignacio Olivera Doll