The Climate Prediction Center issued its latest three-month weather outlook Thursday.
The CPC rates nearly all of the United States, North Dakota included, as having a better than average chance of experiencing a warmer than normal winter.
El Nino update The CPC continues its issuance of an El Nino Watch, saying there is a 50-55 percent chance of El Nino conditions influencing our weather through November and a 65-70 percent chance of El Nino influence beginning as early as December and continuing well into 2019.
This history of El Nino events, a warming of Pacific Ocean temperatures, is that winter temperatures in North Dakota are generally above average and snowfall below average.
Currently, says the CPC, El Nino indicators remain somewhat neutral, “a blend of slightly above-and-below average sea surface temperatures.” However, adds the CPC, a majority of forecast models favor El Nino formation later this fall albeit most likely a weak El Nino.
Nevertheless, El Nino conditions of any degree should deter the number of colder than normal days in the coming months.
A large section of the state, including Ward, Renville and Bottineau Counties is considered to be severe drought.
“Drought conditions continued in northwestern North Dakota, where precipitation over the past two months has been less than 30 percent of normal,” says the CPC.
The CPC noted that Hettinger County in southwestern North Dakota has received just 20 percent of normal precipitation over the past 60 days.
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